Ongoing US naval blockades targeting Iran-linked vessels and Iran's retaliatory restrictions have slashed Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic to a trickle—often one to seven transits daily versus pre-crisis averages exceeding 100—stranding over 2,000 ships and prompting widespread rerouting. Recent US seizures of Iranian cargo ships on April 29 and tanker turnbacks as late as April 27, coupled with Iran's warnings of escalated military action, underscore persistent dual blockades amid the ninth week of US-Iran conflict. With no diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire signals, and unresolved threats from mines and fast-attack boats, traders price low odds of returning to normal volumes by May 31, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on prolonged disruptions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
$4,340,993 Vol.
$4,340,993 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$4,340,993 Vol.
$4,340,993 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US naval blockades targeting Iran-linked vessels and Iran's retaliatory restrictions have slashed Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic to a trickle—often one to seven transits daily versus pre-crisis averages exceeding 100—stranding over 2,000 ships and prompting widespread rerouting. Recent US seizures of Iranian cargo ships on April 29 and tanker turnbacks as late as April 27, coupled with Iran's warnings of escalated military action, underscore persistent dual blockades amid the ninth week of US-Iran conflict. With no diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire signals, and unresolved threats from mines and fast-attack boats, traders price low odds of returning to normal volumes by May 31, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on prolonged disruptions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volume
$4,340,993End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US naval blockades targeting Iran-linked vessels and Iran's retaliatory restrictions have slashed Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic to a trickle—often one to seven transits daily versus pre-crisis averages exceeding 100—stranding over 2,000 ships and prompting widespread rerouting. Recent US seizures of Iranian cargo ships on April 29 and tanker turnbacks as late as April 27, coupled with Iran's warnings of escalated military action, underscore persistent dual blockades amid the ninth week of US-Iran conflict. With no diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire signals, and unresolved threats from mines and fast-attack boats, traders price low odds of returning to normal volumes by May 31, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on prolonged disruptions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$4,344,613End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US naval blockades targeting Iran-linked vessels and Iran's retaliatory restrictions have slashed Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic to a trickle—often one to seven transits daily versus pre-crisis averages exceeding 100—stranding over 2,000 ships and prompting widespread rerouting. Recent US seizures of Iranian cargo ships on April 29 and tanker turnbacks as late as April 27, coupled with Iran's warnings of escalated military action, underscore persistent dual blockades amid the ninth week of US-Iran conflict. With no diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire signals, and unresolved threats from mines and fast-attack boats, traders price low odds of returning to normal volumes by May 31, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on prolonged disruptions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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