Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the Banco de la República's July 2026 rate decision reflects deep uncertainty, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 49% for a 25 basis point decrease, increase, or 50+ bps moves in either direction, and 48% for no change—highlighting a closely contested landscape amid conflicting pressures. The primary catalyst is the central bank's unexpected April 30 halt at 11.25%, despite March inflation accelerating to 5.56% year-over-year (well above the 3% target), as government tensions with President Petro's administration intensify calls for easing to support growth. Modest economic expansion (1.6% activity in February) and peso depreciation near 3,650/USD add to the debate, with key swing factors including April inflation data due May 8, May meeting outcomes, and potential policy rifts eroding credibility. Upcoming Monetary Policy Report in July could clarify the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCentral Bank of Colombia decision in July?
Central Bank of Colombia decision in July?
50+ bps increase 49%
No change 48%
25 bps increase 46%
25 bps decrease 44%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
41%
25 bps decrease
44%
No change
48%
25 bps increase
46%
50+ bps increase
49%
50+ bps increase 49%
No change 48%
25 bps increase 46%
25 bps decrease 44%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$0 Vol.
41%
25 bps decrease
$0 Vol.
44%
No change
$0 Vol.
48%
25 bps increase
$0 Vol.
46%
50+ bps increase
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the Banco de la República's July 2026 rate decision reflects deep uncertainty, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 49% for a 25 basis point decrease, increase, or 50+ bps moves in either direction, and 48% for no change—highlighting a closely contested landscape amid conflicting pressures. The primary catalyst is the central bank's unexpected April 30 halt at 11.25%, despite March inflation accelerating to 5.56% year-over-year (well above the 3% target), as government tensions with President Petro's administration intensify calls for easing to support growth. Modest economic expansion (1.6% activity in February) and peso depreciation near 3,650/USD add to the debate, with key swing factors including April inflation data due May 8, May meeting outcomes, and potential policy rifts eroding credibility. Upcoming Monetary Policy Report in July could clarify the path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the Banco de la República's July 2026 rate decision reflects deep uncertainty, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 49% for a 25 basis point decrease, increase, or 50+ bps moves in either direction, and 48% for no change—highlighting a closely contested landscape amid conflicting pressures. The primary catalyst is the central bank's unexpected April 30 halt at 11.25%, despite March inflation accelerating to 5.56% year-over-year (well above the 3% target), as government tensions with President Petro's administration intensify calls for easing to support growth. Modest economic expansion (1.6% activity in February) and peso depreciation near 3,650/USD add to the debate, with key swing factors including April inflation data due May 8, May meeting outcomes, and potential policy rifts eroding credibility. Upcoming Monetary Policy Report in July could clarify the path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the Banco de la República's July 2026 rate decision reflects deep uncertainty, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 49% for a 25 basis point decrease, increase, or 50+ bps moves in either direction, and 48% for no change—highlighting a closely contested landscape amid conflicting pressures. The primary catalyst is the central bank's unexpected April 30 halt at 11.25%, despite March inflation accelerating to 5.56% year-over-year (well above the 3% target), as government tensions with President Petro's administration intensify calls for easing to support growth. Modest economic expansion (1.6% activity in February) and peso depreciation near 3,650/USD add to the debate, with key swing factors including April inflation data due May 8, May meeting outcomes, and potential policy rifts eroding credibility. Upcoming Monetary Policy Report in July could clarify the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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