White House confirmation of President Trump's summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15 has anchored trader consensus around mid-May, with May 13 leading at 41.5% implied probability amid speculation on arrival logistics or minor scheduling flexibility, closely trailed by May 14 at 32%. The trip, rescheduled from late March due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, reflects ongoing diplomatic efforts to address trade tensions, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional stability. Recent Chinese warnings on Taiwan have boosted "No visit by May 31" to 17.5%, introducing uncertainty from escalation risks, while Japan's push for a stopover adds itinerary variables. Final separation could come from an official itinerary release or breaking foreign policy developments before the dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Trump visit China on...?
Will Trump visit China on...?
May 13 43%
May 14 32%
No visit by May 31 15%
May 15 3.9%
$145,678 Vol.
$145,678 Vol.
On or prior to May 1
<1%
May 2
<1%
May 3
<1%
May 4
<1%
May 5
<1%
May 6
<1%
May 7
<1%
May 8
<1%
May 9
<1%
May 10
<1%
May 11
<1%
May 12
<1%
May 13
43%
May 14
32%
May 15
4%
May 16
1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
<1%
May 19
1%
May 20
<1%
May 21
1%
May 22
<1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
1%
No visit by May 31
15%
May 13 43%
May 14 32%
No visit by May 31 15%
May 15 3.9%
$145,678 Vol.
$145,678 Vol.
On or prior to May 1
<1%
May 2
<1%
May 3
<1%
May 4
<1%
May 5
<1%
May 6
<1%
May 7
<1%
May 8
<1%
May 9
<1%
May 10
<1%
May 11
<1%
May 12
<1%
May 13
43%
May 14
32%
May 15
4%
May 16
1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
<1%
May 19
1%
May 20
<1%
May 21
1%
May 22
<1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
1%
No visit by May 31
15%
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 3:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...White House confirmation of President Trump's summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15 has anchored trader consensus around mid-May, with May 13 leading at 41.5% implied probability amid speculation on arrival logistics or minor scheduling flexibility, closely trailed by May 14 at 32%. The trip, rescheduled from late March due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, reflects ongoing diplomatic efforts to address trade tensions, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional stability. Recent Chinese warnings on Taiwan have boosted "No visit by May 31" to 17.5%, introducing uncertainty from escalation risks, while Japan's push for a stopover adds itinerary variables. Final separation could come from an official itinerary release or breaking foreign policy developments before the dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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