The Polymarket crowd's 91% implied probability for "No" reflects trader consensus that the U.S. special forces' dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—evoking rare precedents like Saddam Hussein in 2003 or Manuel Noriega in 1989—stands as a singular event tied to longstanding U.S. indictments on drug trafficking charges amid Venezuela's instability. With Maduro now facing trial in New York and a new interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez navigating U.S. demands, no subsequent military operations against other heads of state have materialized in the ensuing four months. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, Gaza, or with Iran show no escalation toward U.S. capture missions, and absent official announcements of new targets or interventions, traders price in high barriers like sovereignty risks, congressional oversight, and diplomatic fallout for repeats before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
$49,856 Vol.
$49,856 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$49,856 Vol.
$49,856 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Polymarket crowd's 91% implied probability for "No" reflects trader consensus that the U.S. special forces' dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—evoking rare precedents like Saddam Hussein in 2003 or Manuel Noriega in 1989—stands as a singular event tied to longstanding U.S. indictments on drug trafficking charges amid Venezuela's instability. With Maduro now facing trial in New York and a new interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez navigating U.S. demands, no subsequent military operations against other heads of state have materialized in the ensuing four months. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, Gaza, or with Iran show no escalation toward U.S. capture missions, and absent official announcements of new targets or interventions, traders price in high barriers like sovereignty risks, congressional oversight, and diplomatic fallout for repeats before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$49,856End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Polymarket crowd's 91% implied probability for "No" reflects trader consensus that the U.S. special forces' dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—evoking rare precedents like Saddam Hussein in 2003 or Manuel Noriega in 1989—stands as a singular event tied to longstanding U.S. indictments on drug trafficking charges amid Venezuela's instability. With Maduro now facing trial in New York and a new interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez navigating U.S. demands, no subsequent military operations against other heads of state have materialized in the ensuing four months. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, Gaza, or with Iran show no escalation toward U.S. capture missions, and absent official announcements of new targets or interventions, traders price in high barriers like sovereignty risks, congressional oversight, and diplomatic fallout for repeats before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$49,856End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Polymarket crowd's 91% implied probability for "No" reflects trader consensus that the U.S. special forces' dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—evoking rare precedents like Saddam Hussein in 2003 or Manuel Noriega in 1989—stands as a singular event tied to longstanding U.S. indictments on drug trafficking charges amid Venezuela's instability. With Maduro now facing trial in New York and a new interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez navigating U.S. demands, no subsequent military operations against other heads of state have materialized in the ensuing four months. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, Gaza, or with Iran show no escalation toward U.S. capture missions, and absent official announcements of new targets or interventions, traders price in high barriers like sovereignty risks, congressional oversight, and diplomatic fallout for repeats before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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