Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 26.5%, reflecting stalled US-brokered trilateral talks since February's Geneva meetings yielded no breakthrough on core issues like territory, despite April reports from Ukrainian negotiator Kyrylo Budanov citing progress amid maximalist positions. Recent developments, including President Trump's April 29 call urging Putin to prioritize ending the war and Russia's proposal for a brief May 9 Victory Day ceasefire—which Ukraine is clarifying via US channels—signal tactical pauses rather than comprehensive settlement. Ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and reports of Russia's spring offensive faltering underscore entrenched military postures, with no resumption of substantive negotiations amid diplomatic distractions like Iran ties, leaving significant barriers to a signed deal within the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$221,998 Vol.
$221,998 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$221,998 Vol.
$221,998 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 26.5%, reflecting stalled US-brokered trilateral talks since February's Geneva meetings yielded no breakthrough on core issues like territory, despite April reports from Ukrainian negotiator Kyrylo Budanov citing progress amid maximalist positions. Recent developments, including President Trump's April 29 call urging Putin to prioritize ending the war and Russia's proposal for a brief May 9 Victory Day ceasefire—which Ukraine is clarifying via US channels—signal tactical pauses rather than comprehensive settlement. Ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and reports of Russia's spring offensive faltering underscore entrenched military postures, with no resumption of substantive negotiations amid diplomatic distractions like Iran ties, leaving significant barriers to a signed deal within the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$221,998End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 26.5%, reflecting stalled US-brokered trilateral talks since February's Geneva meetings yielded no breakthrough on core issues like territory, despite April reports from Ukrainian negotiator Kyrylo Budanov citing progress amid maximalist positions. Recent developments, including President Trump's April 29 call urging Putin to prioritize ending the war and Russia's proposal for a brief May 9 Victory Day ceasefire—which Ukraine is clarifying via US channels—signal tactical pauses rather than comprehensive settlement. Ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and reports of Russia's spring offensive faltering underscore entrenched military postures, with no resumption of substantive negotiations amid diplomatic distractions like Iran ties, leaving significant barriers to a signed deal within the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$221,998End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 26.5%, reflecting stalled US-brokered trilateral talks since February's Geneva meetings yielded no breakthrough on core issues like territory, despite April reports from Ukrainian negotiator Kyrylo Budanov citing progress amid maximalist positions. Recent developments, including President Trump's April 29 call urging Putin to prioritize ending the war and Russia's proposal for a brief May 9 Victory Day ceasefire—which Ukraine is clarifying via US channels—signal tactical pauses rather than comprehensive settlement. Ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and reports of Russia's spring offensive faltering underscore entrenched military postures, with no resumption of substantive negotiations amid diplomatic distractions like Iran ties, leaving significant barriers to a signed deal within the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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