US diplomatic pressure for a direct summit between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, highlighted by the US Embassy in Beirut on May 1, sustains trader consensus at 51.5% for a diplomatic meeting by May 31 amid a fragile ceasefire extended from April talks in Washington. April's rare ambassador-level negotiations and 10-day truce, brokered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, built momentum toward border security and Hezbollah disarmament under UN Resolution 1701, but recent Hezbollah drone attacks and Israeli strikes signal violations eroding trust. Internal Lebanese divisions, with Hezbollah opposing talks and Speaker Nabih Berri favoring a limited non-aggression pact, create competitive balance; an announced high-level meeting or Trump facilitation could boost Yes odds, while major escalations risk collapse. Israel's mid-May deadline for a permanent deal looms as a key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
NEW
$11,294 Vol.
NEW
$11,294 Vol.
May 31, 2026
NEW
$11,294 Vol.
NEW
$11,294 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic pressure for a direct summit between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, highlighted by the US Embassy in Beirut on May 1, sustains trader consensus at 51.5% for a diplomatic meeting by May 31 amid a fragile ceasefire extended from April talks in Washington. April's rare ambassador-level negotiations and 10-day truce, brokered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, built momentum toward border security and Hezbollah disarmament under UN Resolution 1701, but recent Hezbollah drone attacks and Israeli strikes signal violations eroding trust. Internal Lebanese divisions, with Hezbollah opposing talks and Speaker Nabih Berri favoring a limited non-aggression pact, create competitive balance; an announced high-level meeting or Trump facilitation could boost Yes odds, while major escalations risk collapse. Israel's mid-May deadline for a permanent deal looms as a key catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 5:00 PM ET
Volume
$11,294End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic pressure for a direct summit between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, highlighted by the US Embassy in Beirut on May 1, sustains trader consensus at 51.5% for a diplomatic meeting by May 31 amid a fragile ceasefire extended from April talks in Washington. April's rare ambassador-level negotiations and 10-day truce, brokered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, built momentum toward border security and Hezbollah disarmament under UN Resolution 1701, but recent Hezbollah drone attacks and Israeli strikes signal violations eroding trust. Internal Lebanese divisions, with Hezbollah opposing talks and Speaker Nabih Berri favoring a limited non-aggression pact, create competitive balance; an announced high-level meeting or Trump facilitation could boost Yes odds, while major escalations risk collapse. Israel's mid-May deadline for a permanent deal looms as a key catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,351End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US diplomatic pressure for a direct summit between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, highlighted by the US Embassy in Beirut on May 1, sustains trader consensus at 51.5% for a diplomatic meeting by May 31 amid a fragile ceasefire extended from April talks in Washington. April's rare ambassador-level negotiations and 10-day truce, brokered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, built momentum toward border security and Hezbollah disarmament under UN Resolution 1701, but recent Hezbollah drone attacks and Israeli strikes signal violations eroding trust. Internal Lebanese divisions, with Hezbollah opposing talks and Speaker Nabih Berri favoring a limited non-aggression pact, create competitive balance; an announced high-level meeting or Trump facilitation could boost Yes odds, while major escalations risk collapse. Israel's mid-May deadline for a permanent deal looms as a key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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