Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures, with "No" implying a 79.5% probability of survival through 2026. Late 2025 economic collapse sparked nationwide protests across 29 provinces, demanding regime change, but security forces—including the IRGC—conducted a brutal crackdown with live fire, internet shutdowns, mass arrests, and executions, effectively quelling unrest by mid-January 2026. Supreme Leader Khamenei's reported death in U.S.-Israeli strikes around late February triggered a swift succession process, installing interim leadership like Ayatollah Alireza Arafi and involving Mojtaba Khamenei, stabilizing command amid ongoing war, naval blockades, and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Recent April reports highlight continued suppression of dissent and IRGC intimidation tactics, outweighing disorganization in opposition ranks and underscoring no imminent collapse despite economic distress and external sanctions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOo
$16,214,280 Vol.
$16,214,280 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oo
$16,214,280 Vol.
$16,214,280 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures, with "No" implying a 79.5% probability of survival through 2026. Late 2025 economic collapse sparked nationwide protests across 29 provinces, demanding regime change, but security forces—including the IRGC—conducted a brutal crackdown with live fire, internet shutdowns, mass arrests, and executions, effectively quelling unrest by mid-January 2026. Supreme Leader Khamenei's reported death in U.S.-Israeli strikes around late February triggered a swift succession process, installing interim leadership like Ayatollah Alireza Arafi and involving Mojtaba Khamenei, stabilizing command amid ongoing war, naval blockades, and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Recent April reports highlight continued suppression of dissent and IRGC intimidation tactics, outweighing disorganization in opposition ranks and underscoring no imminent collapse despite economic distress and external sanctions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$16,214,280Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures, with "No" implying a 79.5% probability of survival through 2026. Late 2025 economic collapse sparked nationwide protests across 29 provinces, demanding regime change, but security forces—including the IRGC—conducted a brutal crackdown with live fire, internet shutdowns, mass arrests, and executions, effectively quelling unrest by mid-January 2026. Supreme Leader Khamenei's reported death in U.S.-Israeli strikes around late February triggered a swift succession process, installing interim leadership like Ayatollah Alireza Arafi and involving Mojtaba Khamenei, stabilizing command amid ongoing war, naval blockades, and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Recent April reports highlight continued suppression of dissent and IRGC intimidation tactics, outweighing disorganization in opposition ranks and underscoring no imminent collapse despite economic distress and external sanctions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$16,214,280Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures, with "No" implying a 79.5% probability of survival through 2026. Late 2025 economic collapse sparked nationwide protests across 29 provinces, demanding regime change, but security forces—including the IRGC—conducted a brutal crackdown with live fire, internet shutdowns, mass arrests, and executions, effectively quelling unrest by mid-January 2026. Supreme Leader Khamenei's reported death in U.S.-Israeli strikes around late February triggered a swift succession process, installing interim leadership like Ayatollah Alireza Arafi and involving Mojtaba Khamenei, stabilizing command amid ongoing war, naval blockades, and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Recent April reports highlight continued suppression of dissent and IRGC intimidation tactics, outweighing disorganization in opposition ranks and underscoring no imminent collapse despite economic distress and external sanctions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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