Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 6.7% odds, reflecting stalled diplomatic efforts and a persistent battlefield stalemate despite recent short-term truce proposals. Russian President Vladimir Putin's floated Victory Day (May 9) pause and prior Orthodox Easter (April 10) 32-hour ceasefire saw mutual violation accusations and failed to advance broader talks, as Moscow insists on retaining occupied territories while Kyiv conditions any halt on Russian strikes ceasing. President Trump's recent call urging Putin to end the war yielded no breakthrough, prompting Ukraine's army reform rollout amid negotiation impasse. With core demands incompatible and no scheduled summits imminent, traders see slim paths to resolution barring sudden concessions or external mediation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,879,891 Vol.
$1,879,891 Vol.
2026/05/31
はい
$1,879,891 Vol.
$1,879,891 Vol.
2026/05/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 6.7% odds, reflecting stalled diplomatic efforts and a persistent battlefield stalemate despite recent short-term truce proposals. Russian President Vladimir Putin's floated Victory Day (May 9) pause and prior Orthodox Easter (April 10) 32-hour ceasefire saw mutual violation accusations and failed to advance broader talks, as Moscow insists on retaining occupied territories while Kyiv conditions any halt on Russian strikes ceasing. President Trump's recent call urging Putin to end the war yielded no breakthrough, prompting Ukraine's army reform rollout amid negotiation impasse. With core demands incompatible and no scheduled summits imminent, traders see slim paths to resolution barring sudden concessions or external mediation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
音量
$1,879,891終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 6.7% odds, reflecting stalled diplomatic efforts and a persistent battlefield stalemate despite recent short-term truce proposals. Russian President Vladimir Putin's floated Victory Day (May 9) pause and prior Orthodox Easter (April 10) 32-hour ceasefire saw mutual violation accusations and failed to advance broader talks, as Moscow insists on retaining occupied territories while Kyiv conditions any halt on Russian strikes ceasing. President Trump's recent call urging Putin to end the war yielded no breakthrough, prompting Ukraine's army reform rollout amid negotiation impasse. With core demands incompatible and no scheduled summits imminent, traders see slim paths to resolution barring sudden concessions or external mediation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
音量
$1,879,891終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 6.7% odds, reflecting stalled diplomatic efforts and a persistent battlefield stalemate despite recent short-term truce proposals. Russian President Vladimir Putin's floated Victory Day (May 9) pause and prior Orthodox Easter (April 10) 32-hour ceasefire saw mutual violation accusations and failed to advance broader talks, as Moscow insists on retaining occupied territories while Kyiv conditions any halt on Russian strikes ceasing. President Trump's recent call urging Putin to end the war yielded no breakthrough, prompting Ukraine's army reform rollout amid negotiation impasse. With core demands incompatible and no scheduled summits imminent, traders see slim paths to resolution barring sudden concessions or external mediation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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