Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain "No" at 95.5% for a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30, driven by the absence of any credible reports of internal plots, leadership fractures, or mass unrest amid the ongoing Russian invasion. President Zelenskyy maintains firm control under martial law, which suspends elections and unifies political actors against external threats, as evidenced by recent cabinet reshuffles in January 2026 to neutralize rivals and bolster wartime cohesion. Mobilization tensions and isolated street incidents have not escalated into systemic challenges, with military loyalty intact despite frontline pressures. Realistic shifts could stem from a major battlefield collapse, elite defections, or sudden scandals, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain "No" at 95.5% for a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30, driven by the absence of any credible reports of internal plots, leadership fractures, or mass unrest amid the ongoing Russian invasion. President Zelenskyy maintains firm control under martial law, which suspends elections and unifies political actors against external threats, as evidenced by recent cabinet reshuffles in January 2026 to neutralize rivals and bolster wartime cohesion. Mobilization tensions and isolated street incidents have not escalated into systemic challenges, with military loyalty intact despite frontline pressures. Realistic shifts could stem from a major battlefield collapse, elite defections, or sudden scandals, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ET
Volume
$9,264End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain "No" at 95.5% for a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30, driven by the absence of any credible reports of internal plots, leadership fractures, or mass unrest amid the ongoing Russian invasion. President Zelenskyy maintains firm control under martial law, which suspends elections and unifies political actors against external threats, as evidenced by recent cabinet reshuffles in January 2026 to neutralize rivals and bolster wartime cohesion. Mobilization tensions and isolated street incidents have not escalated into systemic challenges, with military loyalty intact despite frontline pressures. Realistic shifts could stem from a major battlefield collapse, elite defections, or sudden scandals, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,264End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain "No" at 95.5% for a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30, driven by the absence of any credible reports of internal plots, leadership fractures, or mass unrest amid the ongoing Russian invasion. President Zelenskyy maintains firm control under martial law, which suspends elections and unifies political actors against external threats, as evidenced by recent cabinet reshuffles in January 2026 to neutralize rivals and bolster wartime cohesion. Mobilization tensions and isolated street incidents have not escalated into systemic challenges, with military loyalty intact despite frontline pressures. Realistic shifts could stem from a major battlefield collapse, elite defections, or sudden scandals, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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