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Politics·Michigan Primary

MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Michigan Primary

MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Bridget Brink 50%

William Lawrence 34%

Matt Maasdam 6%

Josh Cowen 5.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Bridget Brink 50%

William Lawrence 34%

Matt Maasdam 6%

Josh Cowen 5.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Bridget Brink

$1,182 Vol.

49%

William Lawrence

$4,914 Vol.

34%

Matt Maasdam

$655 Vol.

6%

Josh Cowen

$844 Vol.

6%

Elyon Badger

$631 Vol.

6%

Alexandra Prieditis

$698 Vol.

4%

Muhammad Salman Rais

$602 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink at 50% implied probability to win the MI-07 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her national security credentials, endorsements from establishment figures like former House Speaker Joe Tate, and backing from EMILYs List, positioning her as the strongest general election challenger to Republican incumbent Tom Barrett in this toss-up district. Progressive organizer William Lawrence holds 34% on recent polls showing him leading at 29-45% among likely primary voters, fueled by grassroots support and local activism, though National Republican Congressional Committee attacks highlight intra-party divisions. Strong Q1 fundraising by retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam exceeds $700,000, but high undecideds in early surveys keep the crowded field fluid with 99 days until absentee voting begins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$9,525
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 10:49 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink at 50% implied probability to win the MI-07 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her national security credentials, endorsements from establishment figures like former House Speaker Joe Tate, and backing from EMILYs List, positioning her as the strongest general election challenger to Republican incumbent Tom Barrett in this toss-up district. Progressive organizer William Lawrence holds 34% on recent polls showing him leading at 29-45% among likely primary voters, fueled by grassroots support and local activism, though National Republican Congressional Committee attacks highlight intra-party divisions. Strong Q1 fundraising by retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam exceeds $700,000, but high undecideds in early surveys keep the crowded field fluid with 99 days until absentee voting begins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$9,525
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 10:49 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bridget Brink" at 49%, followed by "William Lawrence" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Bridget Brink" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "William Lawrence" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.