Trader consensus implies a 54.5% probability for Netherlands to win Group F, anchored by their top-10 FIFA ranking, defensive solidity with Virgil van Dijk, and midfield depth via Frenkie de Jong despite Xavi Simons' ACL tear five days ago ruling out the key playmaker. Japan trades at 26% on surging recent form under Hajime Moriyasu, potent attack led by Mitoma, and 2022 group upset over Netherlands, though Takumi Minamino's ACL injury poses concerns. Sweden sits at 14% leveraging European experience and home/away balance in qualifiers, but earlier knocks to Alexander Isak and Isak Hien temper momentum, leaving Tunisia as 5.1% underdogs with the weakest rankings and squad overhaul under new faces limiting upset potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNetherlands 55%
Japan 26%
Sweden 14%
Tunisia 5.2%
$111,363 Vol.
$111,363 Vol.
Netherlands
55%
Japan
26%
Sweden
14%
Tunisia
5%
Netherlands 55%
Japan 26%
Sweden 14%
Tunisia 5.2%
$111,363 Vol.
$111,363 Vol.
Netherlands
55%
Japan
26%
Sweden
14%
Tunisia
5%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus implies a 54.5% probability for Netherlands to win Group F, anchored by their top-10 FIFA ranking, defensive solidity with Virgil van Dijk, and midfield depth via Frenkie de Jong despite Xavi Simons' ACL tear five days ago ruling out the key playmaker. Japan trades at 26% on surging recent form under Hajime Moriyasu, potent attack led by Mitoma, and 2022 group upset over Netherlands, though Takumi Minamino's ACL injury poses concerns. Sweden sits at 14% leveraging European experience and home/away balance in qualifiers, but earlier knocks to Alexander Isak and Isak Hien temper momentum, leaving Tunisia as 5.1% underdogs with the weakest rankings and squad overhaul under new faces limiting upset potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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