France and Spain lead trader consensus at 16.4% and 15.3% implied probabilities for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, buoyed by their dominant UEFA qualification campaigns—Spain topping Group H ahead of Uruguay after direct qualification, France securing Group I over Norway and Senegal—while recent playoff resolutions in late March and early April confirmed a deep European contingent without upsets among elites. England's 11.1% reflects a competitive Group L with Croatia but leverages Premier League stars like Bellingham; Argentina and Brazil share 8.6% on CONMEBOL supremacy, with Argentina's 38-point haul underscoring consistency despite Messi's age. The tight top cluster stems from the 48-team expansion fostering parity, favorable group paths for favorites, and balanced depth across confederations post-final qualifiers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 16.4%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$872,441,822 Vol.
$872,441,822 Vol.
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
France 16.4%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$872,441,822 Vol.
$872,441,822 Vol.
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France and Spain lead trader consensus at 16.4% and 15.3% implied probabilities for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, buoyed by their dominant UEFA qualification campaigns—Spain topping Group H ahead of Uruguay after direct qualification, France securing Group I over Norway and Senegal—while recent playoff resolutions in late March and early April confirmed a deep European contingent without upsets among elites. England's 11.1% reflects a competitive Group L with Croatia but leverages Premier League stars like Bellingham; Argentina and Brazil share 8.6% on CONMEBOL supremacy, with Argentina's 38-point haul underscoring consistency despite Messi's age. The tight top cluster stems from the 48-team expansion fostering parity, favorable group paths for favorites, and balanced depth across confederations post-final qualifiers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions