Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts amid intensified military actions. In the past week, President Putin proposed a short-term truce for Russia's May 9 Victory Day parade—discussed in a call with U.S. President Trump—but Zelenskyy is seeking clarification via Washington, echoing skepticism after April's 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire failed to extend. Russian forces claim full control of Luhansk and continue offensives, while Ukraine conducts long-range strikes on oil infrastructure and asserts drone superiority. Lavrov's April 18 statement signals no rush to resume talks, with Russia demanding territorial concessions; upcoming May 9 developments unlikely to yield a permanent halt given entrenched positions and absent multilateral breakthroughs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRussland x Ukraine Waffenruhe bis 30. Juni 2026?
Russland x Ukraine Waffenruhe bis 30. Juni 2026?
Ja
$7,376,623 Vol.
$7,376,623 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$7,376,623 Vol.
$7,376,623 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts amid intensified military actions. In the past week, President Putin proposed a short-term truce for Russia's May 9 Victory Day parade—discussed in a call with U.S. President Trump—but Zelenskyy is seeking clarification via Washington, echoing skepticism after April's 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire failed to extend. Russian forces claim full control of Luhansk and continue offensives, while Ukraine conducts long-range strikes on oil infrastructure and asserts drone superiority. Lavrov's April 18 statement signals no rush to resume talks, with Russia demanding territorial concessions; upcoming May 9 developments unlikely to yield a permanent halt given entrenched positions and absent multilateral breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Volumen
$7,376,623Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts amid intensified military actions. In the past week, President Putin proposed a short-term truce for Russia's May 9 Victory Day parade—discussed in a call with U.S. President Trump—but Zelenskyy is seeking clarification via Washington, echoing skepticism after April's 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire failed to extend. Russian forces claim full control of Luhansk and continue offensives, while Ukraine conducts long-range strikes on oil infrastructure and asserts drone superiority. Lavrov's April 18 statement signals no rush to resume talks, with Russia demanding territorial concessions; upcoming May 9 developments unlikely to yield a permanent halt given entrenched positions and absent multilateral breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$7,376,623Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts amid intensified military actions. In the past week, President Putin proposed a short-term truce for Russia's May 9 Victory Day parade—discussed in a call with U.S. President Trump—but Zelenskyy is seeking clarification via Washington, echoing skepticism after April's 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire failed to extend. Russian forces claim full control of Luhansk and continue offensives, while Ukraine conducts long-range strikes on oil infrastructure and asserts drone superiority. Lavrov's April 18 statement signals no rush to resume talks, with Russia demanding territorial concessions; upcoming May 9 developments unlikely to yield a permanent halt given entrenched positions and absent multilateral breakthroughs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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