Exactly One Year After Strategy’s All-Time High, the Bitcoin-Linked Slide Intensifies

One year ago, Strategy (MSTR), the software company that became a pioneer in buying bitcoin BTC$78,511.88 as corporate treasury asset, hit a record high and bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, was within striking distance of $100,00 for the first time.

How things change. Strategy is now 68% below its $543 peak, hit days after President Donald Trump's election victory, and bitcoin has dropped to $83,142, the lowest since April, CoinDesk data show. On Coinbase it fell even further, slipping as low as $81,385 at one point on Friday. A key level to monitor remains Strategy’s average purchase price of about $74,430.

Bitcoin’s decline from the $126,000 record it reached in early October has pushed Strategy into an even steeper slide. The stock has broken below key moving averages and technical support levels in a drawdown that is the joint second-worst since the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company adopted its bitcoin treasury strategy back in April 2020.

The slump is similar to the 69% drop between February and May 2021 that occurred as bitcoin fell from roughly $60,000 to around $30,000. The largest Strategy drawdown occurred after bitcoin reached a then-record $69,000 in November 2021. That was followed by an 84% sell-off that bottomed in June 2022.

Since August 2020, Strategy has experienced multiple tumbles of more than 50%.

Even so, JPMorgan warned that major equity benchmarks such as MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100 may exclude Strategy. Such a move could trigger an estimated $2.8 billion in outflows from MSCI alone as index-matching vehicles shed their holdings of the stock. About $9 billion of the company's market cap is captured by passive investments such as exchange traded funds, the analysts wrote.

Even with the recent decline, Strategy still trades at a 1.23 multiple to net asset value (mNAV), which reflects the enterprise value of the business. During the 2022 bear market the company often traded below its mNAV creating a discount to its underlying bitcoin holdings.