The science and business of space — from technological advances to the wonders of the universe.

Space

Tropical storms, tornadoes and flooding are among the extreme weather events causing destruction around the world.

Extreme weather

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

National

Axios Space

Boeing's Starliner has landed back on Earth after a successful, uncrewed test run to the International Space Station.

Why it matters: The test helps pave the way for the company to fly NASA astronauts to the space station in the future.

What's happening: The Starliner landed in White Sands, New Mexico, at 6:49pm ET on Wednesday after staying docked to the space station since Friday.

During the capsule's test, mission controllers tested out systems like communications, docking ability and thrusters to be sure everything functions as expected in the extreme space environment.

The Starliner did experience a few hiccups after launch and during its "nail-biting" docking with the station, but overall, the test appeared to go as planned.

Background: This mission was a re-do of a 2019 test that didn't see the Starliner reach the space station. 

The malfunctions that occurred during that mission were so severe that they could have resulted in the loss of the capsule.

The big picture: NASA had to rely on Russian rockets and capsules to ferry their astronauts to and from the space station from since the end of the space shuttle program in 2011 until 2020, when SpaceX started launching people to the orbiting outpost.

Once Boeing starts flying people to orbit, it will further cement NASA's independence from Russian rocket systems to send Americans to space.

Boeing capsule is back on Earth after successful test in space

Starliner coming back to Earth in black and white with mountains behind it

Boeing's Starliner coming back to Earth. Photo: NASA TV

Boeing

The relatively small space industry is having an increasingly outsized influence on life on Earth — from geopolitics to GPS directions.

Why it matters: People, companies and nations are pouring billions of dollars into establishing themselves in space. But it is a costly endeavor, so far limited to a few, wealthy entities that have power over the industry on Earth and are shaping it in space.

Driving the news: Space has proven to be more essential than ever to the way we understand what's happening on Earth, and that can best be seen through the essential role satellites have in monitoring — and aiding in — the war in Ukraine. 

Photos from space have allowed the public and governments to understand what's happening in Ukraine — for example, they provided evidence of Russian atrocities in Bucha that can be cited by war crimes investigations.

SpaceX's Starlink is providing internet access to parts of Ukraine, allowing civilians to share their experiences of war with the world.

Much of this is being done using private means, raising concerns that some space companies are able to wield soft power once only reserved for nation-states.

The big picture: War — and everyday life — depends on space for support. Remote tools for key infrastructure like wind turbines are monitored using satellite connectivity, while power grids and banking systems rely on GPS satellites.

"Most people have no idea," the Secure World Foundation's Brian Weeden told me. "They don't drive past something like a giant wind turbine and think about, 'Oh, yeah, we probably have an internet connection for that thing.'" 

The industry's importance to everyday life also translates to the prioritization of space by nations — like the establishment of the U.S. Space Force. 

Billionaires have also become the face of the industry, reflecting their values on their companies and therefore giving the public a window into what matters to them.

So understanding how Elon Musk runs a company like SpaceX can help illuminate how he might manage Twitter.

Between the lines: As nations realign on Earth, they also realign in space, changing the geopolitical landscape in orbit and beyond.

"Space trails events on Earth," space analyst Laura Seward Forczyk told me. 

For example, NASA and Russia's relationship in space started to devolve after Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014, a chilling of the alliance that continues today.

Now, Russia is starting to align itself with China, making plans to create a joint research base on the Moon.

Yes, but: While Russia's relationship with the U.S. has deteriorated on the whole, the two nations have had to continue talking to keep cosmonauts and astronauts on the International Space Station safe.

What's next: Space will continue to grow in importance in the coming years.

Weather satellites are already essential for forecasting, and spacecraft are now being used to spot the beginnings of wildfires.

Earth-gazing satellites are monitoring climate change and the worst emitters of greenhouse gases, making it harder for polluters to hide from the consequences.

Space is also increasingly becoming a war-fighting domain as nations rely on satellites more and more for situational awareness during wars waged on the ground. 

The bottom line: Space matters more than ever.

Small but mighty space industry increasingly powers life on Earth

Illustration of an exclamation point made of stars.

Aerospace

Axios Generate

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be unusually active, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane season outlook released Tuesday. 

Why it matters: Hurricanes are nature's most destructive storms, and if this forecast proves accurate, this would be the seventh straight year of above average activity. 

The past two hurricane seasons both exhausted the list of 21 storm names, which was unprecedented. The 2020 season was the most active on record. 

The big picture: NOAA is forecasting a 65% chance that the upcoming hurricane season will be above average, with a 25% chance of near normal activity and just a 10% chance of below normal tropical cyclone numbers. 

In terms of the number of storms, the agency is predicting a 70% chance of 14 to 21 named storms. Of these, six to 10 would become hurricanes, and of these, three to six would intensify into major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

A typical Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Context: NOAA is basing its forecast on several factors, including sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean Basin and the presence of a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

La Niña is characterized by cooler than average waters near the equator, and it can reduce the winds in the middle and upper atmosphere all the way to the Atlantic. 

These weaker winds can encourage hurricane development by reducing wind shear, which can tear nascent storms apart.

Climate studies show that increasing ocean and air temperatures are leading to wetter, stronger hurricanes, and that rapidly intensifying storms, such as Hurricane Ida last year, are more likely today than just a few decades ago.

Hurricane forecasters also took into account the presence of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, along an enhanced west African monsoon. The monsoon can give rise to groups of thunderstorms moving off the west coast of Africa, that then go on to form tropical storms and hurricanes.

Of note: While the season has not kicked off yet (that happens June 1), some forecasters have raised concerns over an area of unusually mild water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Known as the Gulf of Mexico loop current, if storms were to form in that region or traverse the current, they could rapidly grow into powerful storms. 

Threat level: The greatest threat to life from tropical storms and hurricanes is inland flooding, as shown by Hurricane Ida, which killed more people in the northern Mid-Atlantic from flash floods than it did along the Gulf Coast, where it made landfall.  

Top NOAA, New York City and FEMA officials emphasized this by briefing on the outlook from New York City Emergency Management Department in Brooklyn. 

"I want New Yorkers to be ready," said New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

NOAA predicts as many as 6 major Atlantic hurricanes for 2022

Hurricanes are Mother Nature's most damaging storms, with inland flooding their most deadly threat.

Hurricane Ida nears landfall Aug. 29, 2021.

Satellite image of Hurricane Ida nearing landfall in southern Louisiana in late August 2021. Photo: CIRA/RAMMB

hurricanes

Climate change

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

Lunar Outpost — a company focused on building rovers and instruments to explore the Moon and mine its resources — has raised $12 million in seed funding. 

Why it matters: The Moon is poised to become a major geopolitical and scientific center of operation in space, as more nations and companies turn their attention to the lunar surface.

A number of companies have plans to take advantage of that interest by figuring out how to extract resources from the Moon and get paid to do it.

What's happening: Lunar Outpost's seed round is expected to help fund the company's plans to build a new type of autonomous rover for the Moon and amp up its current offerings.

"It's not just a robot that's going to the Moon for 10 days, and then it's going to die. It's that we're building robots to last and operate for years at a time," Lunar Outpost CEO Justin Cyrus told Axios.

Lunar Outpost already has a contract with NASA — for $1 — to collect some lunar dirt, which the space agency will then take possession of. It's not a big moneymaker for the company, but it will help establish a framework for private companies to mine the Moon on behalf of a nation.

The company already helped design an instrument aboard the Perseverance rover on Mars called MOXIE, designed to test out how future missions might create oxygen from the Martian atmosphere.

The company plans to launch one of its rovers to the Moon within the next year.

Yes, but: This kind of work isn't easy, and the market for private companies aiming to send their wares to the Moon isn't yet defined. 

"It's all a matter of when the market comes forward, on not only the lunar surface, but Mars and beyond," Cyrus said.

Lunar Outpost plans to continue developing tools that have multiple applications on Earth and other worlds.

Extracting resources from the Moon also presents its own special set of technical challenges that companies will need to overcome in order to operate at scale on the lunar surface.

Exclusive: Moon exploration company raises $12 million

The company has plans to send rovers to the Moon.

Moon

Human-caused climate change has ratcheted up the odds and severity of the record-shattering heat wave that has gripped India and Pakistan since March, a new study finds. 

Why it matters: The climate attribution study is the first to specifically examine the factors behind the 2022 heat wave. The new work also indicates that heat waves worsened by global warming are affecting human health, food security and economic output. 

A separate study that was published earlier this month examined the odds that a heat wave would break a record set in 2010.  

Driving the news: Since March, India and Pakistan have seen extraordinarily high temperatures and below average rainfall. The dry conditions have only raised temperatures further, hampering economic activity by cutting down on outdoor work. The heat wave has killed at least 90 people, the study states. 

March was the hottest month in India since records began there 122 years ago, the study notes, and Pakistan set the highest worldwide positive temperature anomaly during for the month. The heat continued during April and into May. On April 29, the study finds, 70% of India was enveloped by the heat wave. 

Temperatures in the hottest locations have routinely reached or exceeded 120°F. 

The big picture: While extreme heat is common in India and Pakistan prior to the onset of the summer monsoon, the hot weather this year has been unusually pronounced, as well as longer-lasting than usual. It also hit earlier in the year than is typically seen. 

The heat has dented wheat crop yields at a time when global supplies are strained due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, prompting India to cut off exports to the global market. 

It also produced a damaging glacial lake outburst flood in northern Pakistan.

"Climate change is fueling impacts that ripple across to other parts of the world, not just the face where the heatwave is occurring," said study coauthor Roop Singh from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center.

Zoom in: The study was conducted by more than two-dozen scientists around the world who are affiliated with the World Weather Attribution project, which uses peer reviewed methods to conduct rapid analyses of how climate change has influenced an extreme weather event. 

They examined the average of daily maximum high temperatures during the March through April 2022 period. 

The researchers concluded that the heat wave has been about a 1-in-100-year event in this region, although they caution this is likely an underestimate due to a relatively short period of data in some areas.

The study found that human emissions of greenhouse gases made this event both about 1°C hotter and more likely to occur, with the probability of such an event increasing by a factor of 30. 

Threat level: If global average temperatures reach 2°C above preindustrial levels, such a heat wave would become an additional 2% to 20% more likely, and up to 1.5°C hotter than the 2022 event, the study found. This mean such heat waves could have a typical return period of once every five years in such a warming scenario.

This is a noteworthy finding since currently, the world is on course for about 3°C of warming by the end of the century. 

Yes, but: The researchers note that measures can be taken to help protect vulnerable populations from such events, such as heat wave early warning systems and bolstering public services such as cooling centers. 

What they're saying: "[In] a world without climate change, this event was highly, highly unlikely," said Arpita Mondal, a study co-author from the Indian Institute of Technology Mumbai, on a conference call with reporters.

Study: Climate change made India, Pakistan heat wave 30 times more likely

A new study highlights the shifting odds and severity of extreme weather events.

A villager walking through the cracked bottom of a dried-out pond on a hot summer day at Bandai village, India.

Shivaram, a villager walking through the cracked bottom of a dried-out pond on a hot summer day at Bandai village in Pali district, India, during a heat wave on May 11, 2022. Photo: Prakash Singh/AFP via Getty Images

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

A hazardous weather weekend is shaping up across much of the Lower 48 states, with a potentially historic late May snowstorm cranking up across the Rockies and a heat wave hitting the East Coast.

Why it matters: More than 100 million Americans are experiencing dangerous weather conditions this weekend, as a cold front slams Colorado and southern Wyoming with heavy snow and a potentially record breaking heat wave surges toward the Northeast.

The big picture: A powerful cold front and its associated low-pressure area drove southeastward across the Rockies Friday, bringing heavy snow to parts of Wyoming and Colorado.

Colorado Springs recorded over 9 inches of snow as of Saturday morning, while multiple towns west of Denver had over 10 inches on Friday night, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

The town of Black Hawk, Colorado, reported 11 inches of snow as of Friday evening.

 The highest snowfall amounts recorded Saturday were in the mountains and foothills west of Denver and Boulder, with up to two feet reported around the Floyd Hill area, according to NWS Boulder.

More than 93,000 customers were without power in Colorado as of Saturday afternoon, according to the tracking service poweroutage.us.

Multiple reporting locations in Wyoming's portion of the Medicine Bow-Routt National Forests recorded more than a foot of snow on Friday.

The heavy snow is the result of winds pushing cold, moist air up and over the higher terrain, in a phenomenon known as upsloping.

Importantly, a forecast consensus has come together for more snowfall than previously expected in the urban corridor between Denver and Boulder, Colorado, with about six to eight inches or more possible in these areas, depending on snowfall rates and the exact surface temperature.

Sharply higher amounts will pile up in the foothills, though, and records for late May could be threatened or broken in some locations. Parts of Boulder, for example, could see a foot of snowfall before the event wraps up on Saturday afternoon

Threat level: The heavy snow falling on trees that already have their leaves could yield widespread tree damage and lasting power outages in the Denver and Boulder areas, and in some cases power may not be restored for days, according to the NWS.

The agency is warning residents not to park their cars near a tree, since it might topple onto the vehicle.

To the south of the snowstorm, dry and windy conditions are bringing yet another day of concerning fire weather conditions to parts of Utah, New Mexico and western Texas on Saturday.

Numerous wildfires are already burning throughout this region, including the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire, the largest in New Mexico's history. Other fires are burning in southern Colorado and west Texas.

Meanwhile... Across the eastern part of the country, an unusually hot weekend is in store as a heat dome that had been parked over Texas shifts eastward. Widespread record-breaking temperatures are expected across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday. 

Much of the Northeast is under a heat advisory until 8 p.m. EDT on Saturday, with heat index values of 95 to 99 degrees expected for parts of New York, northwestern Connecticut and southeastern Vermont.

High temperatures will climb to the upper 90s° in Washington, D.C., Saturday, potentially breaking the previous record of 95°F set in 1934. As of Saturday morning, temperatures were already in the low 80s.

More than 100 million people will experience temperatures that are 20 to 30 degrees above average for this time of year.

It is possible that some monthly high-temperature records will fall, especially in the Northeast.

For most people in the East, the heat wave will be the hottest weather they will have experienced since August 2021. The first heat wave of the season can be particularly dangerous, with higher risks of heat-related illness since people are not yet accustomed to such high temperatures.

"The abrupt beginning of hot temperatures early in the season after a relatively cool spring brings an increased risk of heat illnesses unless proper precautions are taken for those working or recreating outdoors," the NWS said in a special weather statement.

"Since many outdoor events are planned this weekend in the region, be aware of the heat, and take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside this weekend. Reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening."

Human-caused climate change is making heat waves around the world more intense and more likely to occur and may be expanding their seasonal timing earlier in the spring and later into the fall.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details throughout.

Extreme weather plagues U.S., from Colorado snowstorm to East Coast heat

From wildfires to heavy snow and a stifling heat wave, this weekend will feature an unusual array of hazards.

Computer model depiction of forecast highs and records along the East Coast for May 21, 2022.

National Weather Service forecast highs for Saturday, May 21, 2022. The boxes indicate record-setting temperatures. (Weatherbell.com)

extreme weather

U.S. Forest Service Chief Randy Moore suspended all prescribed fires on land owned by the federal government on Friday, citing extreme fire danger, recent burn escapes and a need to review the service's prescribed fire protocols.

Why it matters: The Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire in New Mexico in part caused by a prescribed burn escaping containment amid gusty winds in early April and joining with a separate wildfire.

The two grew into the largest fire in New Mexico's history. The blaze is currently the largest uncontained fire nationwide at more than 300,000 acres. 

It has displaced thousands and is one of several significant fires burning in the Southwest this spring, Axios' Andrew Freedman reports.

Prescribed fires are a valuable tool for protecting communities from extreme fire danger on a large scale, as they burn off dead or excess trees and other plants, reducing the total fuel available for future wildfires. 

Moore said 99.84% of prescribed fires go according to plan and stay within their containment line, though that equals one escape per every 1,000 prescribed fires — about six escapes per year.

What they're saying: In addition to pausing prescribed burns, Moore said he will create a team to review the service's prescribed fire program and implement improvements before resuming prescribed burnings, which he expects will take 90 days.

"Prescribed fire plays an important role in forest management," Moore said. "Yet climate change, drought, dry fuels throughout the country and other factors have led to increasingly extreme wildfires, so we must change the way we make decisions about when and where to burn."

"It is imperative not only to understand what happened in relation to recent prescribed fire escapes, but also to ensure that our prescribed burn program nationwide is anchored in the most contemporary science, policies, practices and decision-making processes."

The big picture: A severe wildfire season is expected across the West because of a severe and expanding drought driven in part by climate change.

At least 26,321 wildfires have burnt 1,692,281 acres so far this so far year, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center.

Go deeper: Where homes will face the most wildfire risk in next 30 years

U.S. Forest Service halts prescribed fires amid extreme fire danger

Recent burn escapes prompted the service chief to call for a pause to review prescribed fire protocols.

A firefighter putting out a hotspot from a wildfire near Mora, New Mexico, on May 13.

A firefighter putting out a hotspot from a wildfire near Mora, New Mexico, on May 13. Photo: Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Wildfires

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Boeing's uncrewed Starliner capsule has officially made it to the International Space Station. 

Why it matters: The uncrewed test Friday paves the way for human missions aboard Starliner to the ISS in the future, and acts as a re-do of a 2019 mission that failed to make it to the station.

What's happening: The Starliner docked to the space station at 8:28 pm ET on Friday after launching from Florida Thursday. 

During its time in space, mission controllers tested out a number of its systems, including its thrusters and communications.

While the spacecraft had a couple thrusters shut off early just after reaching space, that didn't adversely impact its ability to make it to the station.

Background: During the 2019 test, the Starliner wasn't able to make it to the ISS due to a number of issues. 

Those malfunctions were so severe that they could have resulted in the loss of the spacecraft.

What's next: The Starliner is expected to stay docked to the space station for the next four to five days before heading back to Earth.

Once Boeing begins flying astronauts to the ISS, it will mean that three different systems — Starliner, SpaceX's Dragon and Russia's Soyuz — are able to ferry people to and from the space station.

Boeing's Starliner docks to ISS for the first time

The uncrewed test paves the way for human missions aboard Starliner to the ISS in the future.

A full view of the Boeing Starliner capsule shining in white and blue against the blackness of space on approach to the ISS

Boeing's Starliner on approach to the International Space Station. Photo: NASA TV

Boeing on Thursday launched an uncrewed Starliner capsule on a mission to the International Space Station.

Why it matters: The launch is a crucial moment for Boeing, which plans to use its Starliner capsule to take NASA astronauts to the space station in the coming years and compete with SpaceX.

What's happening: The Starliner took flight atop its Atlas V rocket from Florida at about 6:54 p.m. ET.

The capsule is now making its way through space, with docking to the space station expected on Friday.

You can watch docking coverage Friday via NASA TV starting at 3:30 pm ET, with docking expected at about 7:10 pm ET. 

Background: At the moment, SpaceX is the only U.S. company able to fly people to the ISS. 

Both Boeing and SpaceX were awarded NASA contracts to help develop their human spaceflight systems in order to end the space agency's reliance on Russian systems after the end of the space shuttle program in 2011. 

Between the lines: Boeing's first uncrewed Starliner mission to the space station in 2019 ended after major issues prevented the capsule from making it to the orbiting outpost. 

The malfunctions that thwarted the first test were so severe that they could have resulted in the loss of the capsule.

This week's test was initially expected in August 2021, but issues with the Starliner capsule delayed it until this year.

Editor's note: This story was updated to reflect the launch of the Starliner to orbit.

Boeing launches redo mission to the International Space Station

A rocket standing on a launch pad against a blue sky

The Atlas V rocket carrying Boeing Starliner. Photo: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Axios Science

Climate change may be harming the carbon-capturing capabilities of Earth's forests.

Why it matters: Climate models may not be accurately factoring how much carbon can be captured by Earth's trees — and how forests will be affected by climate change. They may be overestimating forests' ability to take in carbon, which means they are underestimating future global warming.

It may also mean selling forest carbon offsets to reduce emissions may not be worth as much as companies think. 

"We could be betting a lot on forest offsets that may not have a lot of benefit by end of the century," says William Anderegg, an ecologist at the University of Utah.

The big picture: Earth's temperate, boreal and tropical forests capture a massive amount of carbon — roughly 20%-25% of the CO2 humans emit each year by one estimate. 

What's new: The death rate of trees in the tropical forests of North Queensland, Australia, doubled between 1984 and 2019, according to a study published this week in Nature. 

The researchers suspect that's linked to climate change: Over that same period the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) — a measure of how quickly the air robs plants of moisture — increased in this region. 

An increase in VPD has been linked to a spike in wildfire risk, in which it plays the "role of a sledgehammer," study authors Sean McMahon and David Bauman of the Smithsonian Environmental Resource Center tell Axios in an email. 

But in forests, some tree species may be resistant, tolerant or resilient to VPD increases, whereas it can stress others, they added. Increases can directly kill trees or make them more vulnerable to drought, disease and pathogens. But, the authors caution, it is difficult to ascribe tree death to drought. 

"Our study indicates that climate in general, and VPD in particular, need to be understood not simply physiologically, but how different species differ in their vulnerability to this stress," they said. 

In another study, Anderegg and his colleagues found the risks posed to trees by wildfires, drought and insect outbreaks through the end of the 21st century may be pervasive, especially in the western U.S.

"In a scenario with medium emissions, wildfire risk is projected to increase by a factor of four. Drought and insect risks increase by about 50% to 80%," they wrote in Ecology Letters.

One limitation is the study doesn't look at the regrowth of trees over time. "It could be there are scenarios where species composition changes or forests lose enough biomass that there isn’t fuel for fire. But that is really more important for [the] end of century and less in the next 30 to 40 years."

Zoom in: More CO2 in the air and higher temperatures are expected to spur the growth of trees from supercharging photosynthesis. 

Climate change is harming a vital tool to combat it

Models may be overestimating forests' ability to take in carbon — and underestimating future global warming

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