Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

National

Axios Generate

Water supply at major California reservoirs, <br>by year


Data: U.S. Department of Energy; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

The long-lasting, severe drought affecting California is likely to have major ramifications for how the region generates electricity this summer, as well as how reliable and costly that supply is, according to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 

Driving the news: The drought's depletion of California's large reservoirs is likely to strain hydroelectric plants to the point where some may have to be shut down. 

Lake Shasta, the state's largest reservoir, has only seen one other year when the reservoir storage was lower than it is now, the EIA found.

The cut in hydropower, which typically supplies about 15% of California's summer electricity generation, will place more of a burden on natural gas plants and increase electricity rates and greenhouse gas emissions, per EIA.

Threat level: There are concerns that nearby states won't be able to make up for California's shortfalls as they cope with their own hotter than average summer, which the National Weather Service is calling for across the West.

The big picture: As the Southwest grapples with a megadrought, driven in large part by human-caused climate change, the region's electricity mix is rapidly shifting. 

More solar and wind power is coming online, as fossil fuel plants are shut down in an effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions. 

While the water storage picture this year looks similar to 2015, the EIA finds that California's energy mix has changed significantly since then. 

By the numbers: According to the report, 58% of the state's natural gas units have been retired since 2015, amounting to 6,500 megawatts of generating capacity. 

At the same time, solar capacity has increased by 8,800 megawatts, and the state has deployed more battery storage. 

Still, there may be shortfalls between power demand and electricity supply, which the state makes up for by importing power from its neighbors. However, the other states will also see strained power supplies due to drought, particularly Nevada and Arizona. 

Meanwhile, a recent report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, whose mission is to monitor the grid and reduce reliability risks, found that there is an "elevated" danger of power disruptions in the West this summer due to the combined impacts of heat and drought. 

Wildfires will cause additional challenges, the report found, from threatening interstate transmission lines to sending so much smoke into the sky that it reduces the output from solar installations. 

The report also found that any extreme heat events, particularly widespread heat waves such as occurred in the Pacific Northwest in 2019, will put large regions at risk of energy emergencies due to less power being available to transfer from one state to the next. 

The bottom line: California is facing the simultaneous consequences of the effects of climate change, including heat waves, wildfires and drought, along with growing pains from the bumpy integration of climate solutions, such as solar and wind power plants, into the broader grid.

California and the West face a summer of power outages

California's hydropower resources are greatly diminished due to the long-running drought.

Drought

Climate change

Axios What's Next

Average cost per mile of select vehicles, by fuel&nbsptype

More Americans than ever will be hitting the road in an electric vehicle this Memorial Day weekend, avoiding the pain at the pump squeezing so many other families heading into the busy summer travel season.

The big picture: The United States is still in the early stages of a historic shift to electric transportation, with EVs accounting for just 4.6% of new car sales — up from 2.4% a year ago. But with gas prices soaring and longer-range EVs hitting the market, road-tripping in an EV is becoming more acceptable for many.

Driving the news: AAA predicts 39.2 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home this holiday weekend, nearly 90% of them by car.

But they'll shell out 50% more than last year to fill up their gas tanks. 

The national average for a gallon of gas is $4.60, up $1.56 from last year, per AAA.

State of play: EVs generally cost more to purchase than gasoline-powered vehicles. That's one big reason people have been reluctant to switch — besides charging concerns.

Yes, but: EVs are often cheaper to operate over the vehicle's lifetime thanks to fuel and maintenance savings. 

Consumer Reports, for example, says EV owners could save between $1,800 and $2,600 in operating and maintenance costs driving an average 15,000 miles a year, compared to drivers of gas-powered vehicles.

A more extensive study from Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology, a nonpartisan climate think tank, concluded that in most states, it is cheaper on a monthly basis to finance and own an EV than the equivalent gasoline car, despite EVs' higher sticker prices. 

The intrigue: So what if you made your holiday weekend road trip in an EV instead of a gasoline vehicle? 

We compared the cost of a 200-mile road trip in a gas-powered Ford F-150 pickup (America's best-selling model) with the cost of the same trip in an electric F-150 Lightning, using data from the Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA), an industry coalition.

At $4.60 per gallon, it would cost $119.60 to fill a gas-powered F-150's 26-gallon tank (capacities vary based on configuration). 

We assumed the gasoline truck would get 24 mpg, based on Ford's specifications (real-world mileage depends on engine options and other factors). 

Over 200 miles, our internal-combustion truck would burn 8.3 gallons of gas, costing roughly $38, or about 20 cents per mile. (Last Memorial Day, the same trip would have dinged us about $25.)

The same trip in the electric F-150 Lightning would cost about $12, or 6 cents per mile, based on national average electricity prices of 14 cents per kWh.

The bottom line: Given the months-long waiting lists for many of the most popular EVs, spur-of-the-moment decisions to go electric before Memorial Day aren't practical. 

But with gas flirting with the $5 mark and high-quality EVs from GM, Volkswagen and others hitting dealerships this year, electrification could be on many a car owner's mind over the next few days.

The great American road trip, electrified

EV drivers will avoid pain at the pump this holiday.

Electric vehicles

Axios Pro Rata

Saudi Aramco has approached Valvoline about buying its lubricants business, as first reported by The Wall Street Journal. The unit generates around 60% of revenue for Valvoline, which has a $6 billion market cap.

Why it matters: This is the latest example of the world's most valuable oil company, which doubles as a geopolitical power, seeking to diversify. And, were a deal struck, it would enable Valvoline to achieve its announced goal of separating its products business from its retail services business.

Saudi Aramco reportedly wants Valvoline's lubricants unit

The state-owned oil giant is seeking to diversify.

Illustration of an oily dollar sign with the oil sloughing off to reveal a green dollar sign.

Big Oil

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Planet FWD, a startup helping consumer product companies assess and reduce their carbon emissions, has raised $10 million in Series A funding led by Acre Venture Partners and Congruent Ventures. 

Why it matters: As the urgency for mitigating climate change grows, companies are increasingly coming under the scrutiny of consumers and regulators for their contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. 

Flashback: In late 2020, Planet FWD debuted a line of fancy crackers developed and manufactured in a carbon neutral way that also incorporates regenerative agriculture practices. 

The process of developing the crackers exposed just how few tools are available to measure that carbon impact, founder and CEO Julia Collins told Axios at the time. This led her to want to build those, too. 

Since then: The company last year acquired ClimateMetrics 2.0, a provider of tools and databases for emissions accounting for consumer products. 

Its founder, Kumar Venkat, is now Planet FWD's chief technology officer. He initially ran ClimateMetrics from 2007 to 2012, during the cleantech boom, and revived it in early 2020. 

It now also counts among its customers brands such as Kashi, PANGAIA, Just Salad, Numi Organic Tea, Healthy Hippo, Toodaloo and Sweet Lorens. 

What they're saying: "I think the big thing here is that there are not enough high quality offsets in the world to offset our emissions," Collins tells Axios, adding that in her view, 80% of what's available in offset marketplaces are not good quality. 

While Planet FWD does help its customers purchase offsets, it only does so if the company is taking steps to reduce its own emissions first.   

Between the lines: Even companies working with Planet FWD have expressed some apprehensions or concerns, says Collins. 

Mainly, if they've done assessments of their supply chain emissions (known as Scope 3 emissions) in the past, they found the process arduous. 

They similarly anticipate the process to be expensive and resource intensive, and are reluctant to reformulate and redesign an individual product. 

The bottom line: A growing number of companies aren't waiting for regulators to make them account for their emissions. 

Planet FWD raises $10 million to help consumer brands cut emissions

Last year, it also acquired a provider of tools and databases for consumer carbon accounting.

Illustration of an apple on a "Good/Bad" scale, with the scale arm hovering over "Good".   

Startups

The Environmental Protection Agency took another step toward blocking a controversial copper and gold mine in the watershed of Alaska's Bristol Bay, proposing new restrictions that are likely to kill the project.

Why it matters: The bay includes the world's largest sockeye salmon fishery. Construction of the Pebble Mine project would have a significant impact on fishing in the area and the ecosystem as a whole, the EPA says.

Details: A new legal determination proposed by the agency would "prohibit and restrict the use of certain waters in the Bristol Bay watershed as disposal sites for the discharge of dredged or fill material associated with mining the Pebble Deposit."

During the Obama administration, the agency used the Clean Water Act to limit mining activity in the region, per the Washington Post. That policy was reversed under President Trump in 2020.

The EPA indicated last fall that it would probably move to block the project.

What's next: The agency said it will accept public comments until July 5, then publish a final legal determination.

What they're saying: "The Bristol Bay watershed is a shining example of how our nation's waters are essential to healthy communities, vibrant ecosystems, and a thriving economy," EPA administrator Michael Regan said in a statement.

The other side: "I find it ironic that the President is using the Defense Production Act to get more renewable energy minerals such as copper into production while others in the administration seek political ways to stop domestic mining projects such as ours," John Shively, the CEO of Pebble Partnership, said in a statement.

"The Pebble Project remains an important domestic source for the minerals necessary for the Biden Administration to reach its green energy goals and if it blocks Pebble it will have to seek minerals to meet its goals from foreign sources who simply do not have the same environmental standards as we do," he added.

EPA proposes new restrictions to block controversial Alaska mine

Bristol Bay in Alaska includes the world's largest sockeye salmon fishery.

Naknek River, which flows into Bristol Bay, Alaska, in the summer of 2019. Photo: Luis Sinco/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Alaska

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be unusually active, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane season outlook released Tuesday. 

Why it matters: Hurricanes are nature's most destructive storms, and if this forecast proves accurate, this would be the seventh straight year of above average activity. 

The past two hurricane seasons both exhausted the list of 21 storm names, which was unprecedented. The 2020 season was the most active on record. 

The big picture: NOAA is forecasting a 65% chance that the upcoming hurricane season will be above average, with a 25% chance of near normal activity and just a 10% chance of below normal tropical cyclone numbers. 

In terms of the number of storms, the agency is predicting a 70% chance of 14 to 21 named storms. Of these, six to 10 would become hurricanes, and of these, three to six would intensify into major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

A typical Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Context: NOAA is basing its forecast on several factors, including sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean Basin and the presence of a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

La Niña is characterized by cooler than average waters near the equator, and it can reduce the winds in the middle and upper atmosphere all the way to the Atlantic. 

These weaker winds can encourage hurricane development by reducing wind shear, which can tear nascent storms apart.

Climate studies show that increasing ocean and air temperatures are leading to wetter, stronger hurricanes, and that rapidly intensifying storms, such as Hurricane Ida last year, are more likely today than just a few decades ago.

Hurricane forecasters also took into account the presence of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, along an enhanced west African monsoon. The monsoon can give rise to groups of thunderstorms moving off the west coast of Africa, that then go on to form tropical storms and hurricanes.

Of note: While the season has not kicked off yet (that happens June 1), some forecasters have raised concerns over an area of unusually mild water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Known as the Gulf of Mexico loop current, if storms were to form in that region or traverse the current, they could rapidly grow into powerful storms. 

Threat level: The greatest threat to life from tropical storms and hurricanes is inland flooding, as shown by Hurricane Ida, which killed more people in the northern Mid-Atlantic from flash floods than it did along the Gulf Coast, where it made landfall.  

Top NOAA, New York City and FEMA officials emphasized this by briefing on the outlook from New York City Emergency Management Department in Brooklyn. 

"I want New Yorkers to be ready," said New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

NOAA predicts as many as 6 major Atlantic hurricanes for 2022

Hurricanes are Mother Nature's most damaging storms, with inland flooding their most deadly threat.

Hurricane Ida nears landfall Aug. 29, 2021.

Satellite image of Hurricane Ida nearing landfall in southern Louisiana in late August 2021. Photo: CIRA/RAMMB

hurricanes

Extreme weather

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

A new direct air capture coalition is launching Tuesday that aims to be a convener for the players in this growing field. It includes a slew of private companies, such as Climeworks, as well as nonprofits, universities and philanthropies.

Why it matters: Until now, it has been left to individual players in the nascent air capture space to explain what it is and set goals.

Context: Climate scientists say that scaling carbon dioxide removal technologies, such as direct air capture, is needed for the world to decarbonize hard to abate sectors and reach net-zero emissions. This is a daunting task. 

The big picture: The coalition will have a global focus and seeks to include nongovernmental (NGO) and civil society groups that have concerns about equity and sustainability, co-founder and board member Nicholas Eisenberger told Axios in an interview. 

The coalition has no plans to lobby governments, he said. Eisenberger is president of Global Thermostat, a direct air capture company that is a coalition member. 

What's next: The group plans on holding a summit during the next year to produce a roadmap for the direct air capture industry through 2030. 

“We really think what we bring to the table is that unique front line perspective from these different stakeholders who are working on it,” Eisenberger said. 

Of note: The group already has an Africa-based adviser, James Mwangi, who is the executive director of the Dalberg Group.

Exclusive: Direct air capture coalition launches

Until now, it has been left to individual players in the nascent air capture space to explain what it is and set goals.

Illustration of a garbage truck labeled as though it is a carbon dioxide removal vehicle

carbon capture

Auto giants are joining with battery companies, EV startups and lithium producers in a new coalition seeking stronger federal support for building a large U.S. battery supply chain.

Driving the news: The Coalition for American Battery Independence (CABI) launches Tuesday.

Members include General Motors, Ford, Panasonic, Tesla, Form Energy, Albemarle, Proterra and the Zero Emission Transportation Association.

The group, run via the lobbying firm Boundary Stone Partners, targets batteries for electric vehicles and storage.

The goal: cohesive support for everything from raw materials processing and refining to component manufacturing to making battery packs.

Why it matters: Battery demand is slated to surge in coming years and decades. 

There's intense global competition to build supply chains (and expand and diversify mining, a challenge that's not a current CABI focus).

It's "critically imperative for our energy and climate security to re-shore these battery materials and manufacturing capacity," CABI said.

The big picture: The Biden administration is trying to boost the supply chain with steps like Energy Department grants and loan guarantees.

But Mike Carr of Boundary Stone — which represents several CABI members — said more holistic policies are needed.

The group will initially work behind the scenes with policymakers, he said.

It wants Congress to pass tax incentives for manufacturing and processing.

Executive support could include use of the Defense Production Act and other purchasing authorities, Carr said.

Catch up fast: While multiple U.S. battery projects are planned, the U.S. now has a fairly small piece of the industry.

China produces three-fourths of lithium-ion batteries; has by far the largest cathode and anode production; and over half of lithium, cobalt and graphite processing and refining capacity, per the International Energy Agency.

Industry heavyweights unite in U.S. battery push

Demand is slated to surge in coming years and decades.

Illustration of a bald eagle clutching a lightning bolt in its talons. 

Batteries

Unchecked climate change would be a major impediment to economic growth during the next 50 years, costing an estimated $178 trillion in net present value terms during the 2021-2070 period, a new study concludes. 

The big picture: The study from the Deloitte Center for Sustainable Progress models the impacts of a 3°C increase in global average temperatures compared to preindustrial levels, which is consistent with the world's current pathway. 

It shows the associated effects on future productivity, economic output and growth across industries and regions.

Zoom in: In contrast to unchecked warming, the report states that if countries act quickly to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and hold global warming to below 2°C, the global economy would see an expansion of $43 trillion in net present value during the 2021-2070 period.

Yes, but: There will be a period of time, potentially lasting a few decades, when the upfront costs of the clean energy transition would outweigh the benefits, the report notes. (A similar tone was struck in a McKinsey report last year.)

Context: The stakes may be highest in the Asia-Pacific region, the report finds, because a 3°C scenario would hit GDP the hardest there. This is partly due to the region's vulnerability to extreme weather events.

A climate change-related spike in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events, large wildfires and heavy precipitation events are already occurring around the world. These disasters are having far-reaching effects, such as the heat wave in India and Pakistan that began in March and led India's government to halt wheat exports due to a drop in its output. 

These trends are taking place when the planet has only warmed by about 1.1°C (1.98°F) since the start of the industrial revolution. 

With the globe currently on course for at least 3°C of warming by 2100, barring rapid and steep greenhouse gas emissions cuts, far more significant impacts are virtually guaranteed. 

What they're saying: "Insufficient action to mitigate climate change is a policy choice that can be made," said the report authors Pradeep Philip and Claire Ibrahim, via email. "But it is a choice that comes with a high cost." 

"Ultimately, every business knows that investment takes time to generate returns but without investment, you can’t grow," Philip and Ibrahim told Axios. "Business leaders make these decisions all the time — they find new funds, they reallocate existing funds, and they invest in both repair and maintenance but also in the new capital to drive their businesses," they said. 

"This is the same for how we should think about the path to net-zero for our economy."

New report highlights the steep costs of climate inaction

A study models economic growth in the next 50 years, with and without policies to limit global temperature increases.

A wildfire burns down a home in a coastal area south of Los Angeles in May 2022.

Firefighters battle the Coastal Fire in Laguna Niguel, Calif. on May 11, 2022. (Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Human-caused climate change has ratcheted up the odds and severity of the record-shattering heat wave that has gripped India and Pakistan since March, a new study finds. 

Why it matters: The climate attribution study is the first to specifically examine the factors behind the 2022 heat wave. The new work also indicates that heat waves worsened by global warming are affecting human health, food security and economic output. 

A separate study that was published earlier this month examined the odds that a heat wave would break a record set in 2010.  

Driving the news: Since March, India and Pakistan have seen extraordinarily high temperatures and below average rainfall. The dry conditions have only raised temperatures further, hampering economic activity by cutting down on outdoor work. The heat wave has killed at least 90 people, the study states. 

March was the hottest month in India since records began there 122 years ago, the study notes, and Pakistan set the highest worldwide positive temperature anomaly during for the month. The heat continued during April and into May. On April 29, the study finds, 70% of India was enveloped by the heat wave. 

Temperatures in the hottest locations have routinely reached or exceeded 120°F. 

The big picture: While extreme heat is common in India and Pakistan prior to the onset of the summer monsoon, the hot weather this year has been unusually pronounced, as well as longer-lasting than usual. It also hit earlier in the year than is typically seen. 

The heat has dented wheat crop yields at a time when global supplies are strained due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, prompting India to cut off exports to the global market. 

It also produced a damaging glacial lake outburst flood in northern Pakistan.

"Climate change is fueling impacts that ripple across to other parts of the world, not just the face where the heatwave is occurring," said study coauthor Roop Singh from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center.

Zoom in: The study was conducted by more than two-dozen scientists around the world who are affiliated with the World Weather Attribution project, which uses peer reviewed methods to conduct rapid analyses of how climate change has influenced an extreme weather event. 

They examined the average of daily maximum high temperatures during the March through April 2022 period. 

The researchers concluded that the heat wave has been about a 1-in-100-year event in this region, although they caution this is likely an underestimate due to a relatively short period of data in some areas.

The study found that human emissions of greenhouse gases made this event both about 1°C hotter and more likely to occur, with the probability of such an event increasing by a factor of 30. 

Threat level: If global average temperatures reach 2°C above preindustrial levels, such a heat wave would become an additional 2% to 20% more likely, and up to 1.5°C hotter than the 2022 event, the study found. This mean such heat waves could have a typical return period of once every five years in such a warming scenario.

This is a noteworthy finding since currently, the world is on course for about 3°C of warming by the end of the century. 

Yes, but: The researchers note that measures can be taken to help protect vulnerable populations from such events, such as heat wave early warning systems and bolstering public services such as cooling centers. 

What they're saying: "[In] a world without climate change, this event was highly, highly unlikely," said Arpita Mondal, a study co-author from the Indian Institute of Technology Mumbai, on a conference call with reporters.

Study: Climate change made India, Pakistan heat wave 30 times more likely

A new study highlights the shifting odds and severity of extreme weather events.

A villager walking through the cracked bottom of a dried-out pond on a hot summer day at Bandai village, India.

Shivaram, a villager walking through the cracked bottom of a dried-out pond on a hot summer day at Bandai village in Pali district, India, during a heat wave on May 11, 2022. Photo: Prakash Singh/AFP via Getty Images

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

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