A US-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon took effect on April 16, 2026, amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, and was extended by three weeks to facilitate peace negotiations, though both sides accuse each other of violations including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah fire. Israel maintains a 10-kilometer security zone in southern Lebanon and demands Hezbollah's full disarmament as preconditions for any durable agreement, while Hezbollah insists on complete Israeli withdrawal, prisoner exchanges, and resident returns before committing. No permanent peace deal has emerged, with Netanyahu rejecting a "quiet for quiet" truce; upcoming talks and the extension's May expiration could signal escalation or progress in diplomacy. Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over core sticking points like disarmament and border security.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$105,326 交易量
2026-05-31
May 31
5%
$105,326 交易量
May 31
$28,243 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A US-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon took effect on April 16, 2026, amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, and was extended by three weeks to facilitate peace negotiations, though both sides accuse each other of violations including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah fire. Israel maintains a 10-kilometer security zone in southern Lebanon and demands Hezbollah's full disarmament as preconditions for any durable agreement, while Hezbollah insists on complete Israeli withdrawal, prisoner exchanges, and resident returns before committing. No permanent peace deal has emerged, with Netanyahu rejecting a "quiet for quiet" truce; upcoming talks and the extension's May expiration could signal escalation or progress in diplomacy. Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over core sticking points like disarmament and border security.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
交易量
$105,326结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A US-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon took effect on April 16, 2026, amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, and was extended by three weeks to facilitate peace negotiations, though both sides accuse each other of violations including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah fire. Israel maintains a 10-kilometer security zone in southern Lebanon and demands Hezbollah's full disarmament as preconditions for any durable agreement, while Hezbollah insists on complete Israeli withdrawal, prisoner exchanges, and resident returns before committing. No permanent peace deal has emerged, with Netanyahu rejecting a "quiet for quiet" truce; upcoming talks and the extension's May expiration could signal escalation or progress in diplomacy. Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over core sticking points like disarmament and border security.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$105,326结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon took effect on April 16, 2026, amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, and was extended by three weeks to facilitate peace negotiations, though both sides accuse each other of violations including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah fire. Israel maintains a 10-kilometer security zone in southern Lebanon and demands Hezbollah's full disarmament as preconditions for any durable agreement, while Hezbollah insists on complete Israeli withdrawal, prisoner exchanges, and resident returns before committing. No permanent peace deal has emerged, with Netanyahu rejecting a "quiet for quiet" truce; upcoming talks and the extension's May expiration could signal escalation or progress in diplomacy. Trader consensus reflects deep uncertainty over core sticking points like disarmament and border security.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题