Following the U.S. military operation on January 3 that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas—confirmed by official White House statements and multiple government reports—traders assign a 91% implied probability to "No" further such captures in 2026, reflecting the rarity of U.S.-led detentions of sitting heads of state. No verifiable military strikes, special operations, or diplomatic escalations targeting other leaders—like those in Mexico, Iran, or Syria—have occurred in the ensuing four months, with recent news focusing instead on Venezuela's post-capture transition under interim leadership and normalized U.S.-Venezuela flights. Absent sudden invasions, indictments leading to renditions, or proxy conflicts escalating to leadership targeting, the wisdom of crowds prices in continued restraint amid international backlash to the Maduro action.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$49,856 交易量
$49,856 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$49,856 交易量
$49,856 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the U.S. military operation on January 3 that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas—confirmed by official White House statements and multiple government reports—traders assign a 91% implied probability to "No" further such captures in 2026, reflecting the rarity of U.S.-led detentions of sitting heads of state. No verifiable military strikes, special operations, or diplomatic escalations targeting other leaders—like those in Mexico, Iran, or Syria—have occurred in the ensuing four months, with recent news focusing instead on Venezuela's post-capture transition under interim leadership and normalized U.S.-Venezuela flights. Absent sudden invasions, indictments leading to renditions, or proxy conflicts escalating to leadership targeting, the wisdom of crowds prices in continued restraint amid international backlash to the Maduro action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
交易量
$49,856結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the U.S. military operation on January 3 that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas—confirmed by official White House statements and multiple government reports—traders assign a 91% implied probability to "No" further such captures in 2026, reflecting the rarity of U.S.-led detentions of sitting heads of state. No verifiable military strikes, special operations, or diplomatic escalations targeting other leaders—like those in Mexico, Iran, or Syria—have occurred in the ensuing four months, with recent news focusing instead on Venezuela's post-capture transition under interim leadership and normalized U.S.-Venezuela flights. Absent sudden invasions, indictments leading to renditions, or proxy conflicts escalating to leadership targeting, the wisdom of crowds prices in continued restraint amid international backlash to the Maduro action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$49,856結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the U.S. military operation on January 3 that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas—confirmed by official White House statements and multiple government reports—traders assign a 91% implied probability to "No" further such captures in 2026, reflecting the rarity of U.S.-led detentions of sitting heads of state. No verifiable military strikes, special operations, or diplomatic escalations targeting other leaders—like those in Mexico, Iran, or Syria—have occurred in the ensuing four months, with recent news focusing instead on Venezuela's post-capture transition under interim leadership and normalized U.S.-Venezuela flights. Absent sudden invasions, indictments leading to renditions, or proxy conflicts escalating to leadership targeting, the wisdom of crowds prices in continued restraint amid international backlash to the Maduro action.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions