France holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 17% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, surging past Spain (15%) following Lamine Yamal's season-ending injury that clouds La Roja's attacking depth despite their Euro 2024 triumph and Nations League form. The tightly bunched top outcomes reflect a balanced field of elite contenders—England's historically deep squad, defending champions Argentina with Lionel Messi at 39 still contributing, and Brazil's continental boost via Vinícius Júnior—amid a wave of key absences like Rodrygo's ACL tear and Jack Grealish's stress fracture. The expanded 48-team format's novel group stage and knockout paths amplify upset risks, with all qualifiers complete since early April and pre-tournament fitness the pivotal uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於法國 16.8%
西班牙 15.3%
英格蘭 11.1%
阿根廷 8.6%
$873,461,361 交易量
$873,461,361 交易量

法國
17%

西班牙
15%

英格蘭
11%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
2%

日本
2%

比利時
2%

摩洛哥
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

美國
2%

烏拉圭
1%

墨西哥
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

瑞士
1%

厄瓜多
1%

塞內加爾
1%

加拿大
1%

土耳其
1%

奧地利
1%

瑞典
1%

南韓
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

埃及
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

捷克
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

約旦
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

加納
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

海地
<1%

伊朗
<1%
法國 16.8%
西班牙 15.3%
英格蘭 11.1%
阿根廷 8.6%
$873,461,361 交易量
$873,461,361 交易量

法國
17%

西班牙
15%

英格蘭
11%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
2%

日本
2%

比利時
2%

摩洛哥
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

美國
2%

烏拉圭
1%

墨西哥
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

瑞士
1%

厄瓜多
1%

塞內加爾
1%

加拿大
1%

土耳其
1%

奧地利
1%

瑞典
1%

南韓
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

埃及
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

捷克
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

約旦
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

加納
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

海地
<1%

伊朗
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 17% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, surging past Spain (15%) following Lamine Yamal's season-ending injury that clouds La Roja's attacking depth despite their Euro 2024 triumph and Nations League form. The tightly bunched top outcomes reflect a balanced field of elite contenders—England's historically deep squad, defending champions Argentina with Lionel Messi at 39 still contributing, and Brazil's continental boost via Vinícius Júnior—amid a wave of key absences like Rodrygo's ACL tear and Jack Grealish's stress fracture. The expanded 48-team format's novel group stage and knockout paths amplify upset risks, with all qualifiers complete since early April and pre-tournament fitness the pivotal uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions