President Trump's US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains firmly in place nearly 60 days after its April imposition amid stalled Iran talks, with US Central Command reporting 45 ships turned away in recent enforcement actions. Trader consensus prices a 41% implied probability for an official lift announcement by May 31, reflecting Iran's latest proposal—delivered via Pakistani mediators to reopen the strait immediately in exchange for ending the blockade and shelving nuclear talks—which Trump dismissed today as insufficient without firm nuclear guarantees. Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized continued pressure on Iran's economy via shortages and isolation, driving elevated oil prices above $110 per barrel. Upcoming congressional grilling of the Defense Secretary and potential further diplomatic signals could tip de-escalation timelines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo official US announcement lifting blockade by May 15 deadline
No official US announcement lifting blockade by May 15 deadline
No official US government or President Trump announcement was made to lift the blockade by May 15, solidifying market consensus that the blockade would continue past that date
No official US government or President Trump announcement was made to lift the blockade by May 15, solidifying market consensus that the blockade would continue past that date
No official statement from President Trump or US government lifting the blockade;
market settles at current low reflecting low probability of lifting by May 31
No official US government or President Trump statement indicating lifting or planned lifting of the blockade by May 22, maintaining market consensus on a low probability of a "Yes" resolution
Absence of qualifying announcements kept the market
Saudi Arabia urges US to lift blockade amid regional escalation fears
May 15 dips to 20%2%
Saudi Arabia urges US to lift blockade amid regional escalation fears
Market reacts to no official US announcement lifting the blockade by the end of April and ongoing tensions;
May 31 dips to 41%3%
Market reacts to no official US announcement lifting the blockade by the end of April and ongoing tensions;
No official US government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade is made by the deadline, confirming market expectations and driving
April 30 dips to 0%3%
No official US government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade is made by the deadline, confirming market expectations and driving
Iran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade and ends the war, but President Trump rejects the offer as insufficient, insisting on a full deal including nuclear program concessions
May 22 rises to 31%3%
This Iranian proposal briefly raised hopes for a resolution, causing a small
US military intensifies blockade enforcement, including seizing Iranian-flagged tankers and authorizing targeting of Iranian fast boats, with no indication of lifting the blockade
May 22 dips to 28%3%
Heightened military actions signaled continued blockade enforcement, reducing chances of an imminent lifting announcement.
Saudi Arabia urges the US to lift the blockade to prevent regional escalation, but no official US announcement to lift the blockade occurs, keeping market odds low
May 8 dips to 8%2%
Saudi Arabia urges the US to lift the blockade to prevent regional escalation, but no official US announcement to lift the blockade occurs, keeping market odds low
Saudi Arabia publicly urged the US to lift the blockade to avoid escalation at another chokepoint, Bab al-Mandab, but no US official statement indicated lifting the blockade,
May 15 dips to 20%2%
Saudi Arabia publicly urged the US to lift the blockade to avoid escalation at another chokepoint, Bab al-Mandab, but no US official statement indicated lifting the blockade, maintaining downward pressure on the market
Saudi Arabia urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, adding diplomatic pressure but no official US response
While regional pressure increased, lack of US commitment to lifting the blockade kept market odds steady at a low level.
Reports confirm sanctioned tankers continue to pass through the Strait despite the blockade, exposing enforcement gaps but no official lifting announcement.
April 30 dips to 3%3%
Traders interpret this as erosion of blockade effectiveness but not a formal end, pushing
Iran’s Foreign Minister claims partial reopening of the Strait for non-hostile traffic, but no official US lifting announcement;
May 31 drops to 51%5%
traders remain cautious, reflecting in a
Iran recloses Strait after US blockade persists
May 15 drops to 25%7%
Iran recloses Strait after US blockade persists
President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks and ongoing tensions, signaling low near-term prospects for lifting the blockade
May 22 plunges to 28%32%
This official stance reinforced expectations that the blockade would continue, driving down the probability of a May 22 lifting announcement.
Iran reclosed the Strait of Hormuz after the US refused to lift its blockade, contradicting earlier Iranian claims of reopening;
May 15 drops to 25%7%
this reinforced the blockade’s persistence and lowered market confidence in a May 15 lift
US military escalates actions; Iran retaliates by capturing vessels
May 15 drops to 33%6%
US military escalates actions; Iran retaliates by capturing vessels
President Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended blockade, underscoring a strategy of sustained pressure on Iran amid stalled diplomacy and no lifting announcement.
April 30 drops to 6%7%
This official preparation for prolonging the blockade further reduced market confidence in lifting by April 30
Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended blockade, with no indication of lifting, as peace talks remain stalled and Iran's reopening proposals are rejected
May 8 dips to 9%1%
Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended blockade, with no indication of lifting, as peace talks remain stalled and Iran's reopening proposals are rejected
US forces authorized targeting of Iranian fast boats amid heightened tensions, and Iran captured two vessels in retaliation, increasing conflict risks and reducing likelihood of
May 15 drops to 33%6%
US forces authorized targeting of Iranian fast boats amid heightened tensions, and Iran captured two vessels in retaliation, increasing conflict risks and reducing likelihood of blockade lifting soon
Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial vessels during a ceasefire, but President Trump stated the US naval blockade
May 15 jumps to 39%5%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial vessels during a ceasefire, but President Trump stated the US naval blockade would remain in full force until a deal is reached, signaling no imminent lifting of the blockade
Reports emerge that President Trump has directed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade, signaling low near-term prospects for lifting;
May 31 dips to 56%3%
stalled diplomacy and ongoing military actions weigh on market optimism
Iran declares Strait open but Trump insists blockade remains until deal
May 15 jumps to 39%5%
Iran declares Strait open but Trump insists blockade remains until deal
Iran offers to reopen the Strait if the US lifts its blockade and ends the war, but Trump and US officials reject the offer as insufficient, maintaining blockade conditions.
April 30 drops to 13%11%
This diplomatic stalemate pushed market odds lower
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, adding diplomatic pressure on the US administration;
May 31 drops to 58%6%
market reacts with mixed signals on blockade duration
President Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats amid rising tensions;
May 31 plunges to 59%15%
this military escalation raises conflict risk, leading to a market dip as traders reassess blockade lifting prospects
President Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reinforcing the blockade's continuation without signs of lifting
May 8 dips to 10%4%
President Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reinforcing the blockade's continuation without signs of lifting
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift
April 30 drops to 16%12%
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift blockade soon. This hardened stance contributed to further
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again after US maintains blockade;
April 30 plunges to 38%30%
Iranian Foreign Minister had briefly declared it open tied to a ceasefire, but the US refusal to lift blockade led to reclosure, causing market uncertainty and a sharp
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of
May 8 dips to 14%1%
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of blockade lifting soon
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, reinforcing US enforcement and signaling no imminent lifting.
April 30 drops to 50%10%
This action likely contributed to a
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, demonstrating US enforcement resolve;
May 31 jumps to 86%11%
Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, increasing escalation fears and causing
Iran reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, fires on merchant ships, and warns any approaching vessels will be targeted, directly responding to the ongoing
May 8 plunges to 15%37%
Iran reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, fires on merchant ships, and warns any approaching vessels will be targeted, directly responding to the ongoing US blockade; Trump reiterates the blockade will remain in full force until a deal is reached, signaling no near-term lifting of the blockade
Iran reverses reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, resuming its blockade and firing on ships attempting passage, after the US refuses to lift its blockade of Iranian ports.
April 30 plunges to 38%25%
Trump confirms the US blockade remains fully in effect, escalating tensions and reducing odds of a near-term lifting
Iran reverses reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, fully closes it again, and fires on ships attempting passage in retaliation to the US blockade;
May 31 dips to 75%3%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warns vessels approaching will be targeted, heightening conflict risk and causing market uncertainty
US Central Command confirms enforcement of the blockade starting 10 a.m.
May 31 dips to 82%1%
ET, clarifying it targets vessels linked to Iranian ports but allows transit for non-Iranian destinations; this official confirmation sustains high market confidence in blockade continuation
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, imposing restrictions on Iranian ports and
April 30 jumps to 60%11%
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, imposing restrictions on Iranian ports and shipping to pressure Tehran. This initial announcement set the market near 49%-60% Yes as traders
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after US-Iran peace talks collapse in Islamabad, citing Iran's nuclear ambitions as the deal-breaker;
May 31 surges to 83%35%
Trump orders Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran, escalating tensions and triggering initial market surge
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