The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner at 21.6% implied probability on Polymarket, closely pursued by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.8%, underscoring a fragmented early field two years before primaries. Recent drivers include a late-March UMass Lowell poll showing Vance edging Newsom 33%-30% head-to-head, Rubio's mid-March surge to top prediction markets via foreign policy visibility on Iran tensions, and Newsom's post-2026 midterm considerations amid Democratic soul-searching. The race stays tight due to Vance's incumbency edge offset by Newsom's national attacks on GOP policies and Rubio's GOP straw poll momentum; separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, economic trends under the Trump administration, early primary polling in swing states, or candidate announcements by late 2026.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner at 21.6% implied probability on Polymarket, closely pursued by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.8%, underscoring a fragmented early field two years before primaries. Recent drivers include a late-March UMass Lowell poll showing Vance edging Newsom 33%-30% head-to-head, Rubio's mid-March surge to top prediction markets via foreign policy visibility on Iran tensions, and Newsom's post-2026 midterm considerations amid Democratic soul-searching. The race stays tight due to Vance's incumbency edge offset by Newsom's national attacks on GOP policies and Rubio's GOP straw poll momentum; separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, economic trends under the Trump administration, early primary polling in swing states, or candidate announcements by late 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Apr 28 2026
The Guardian published a commentary suggesting Carlson is “the most likely GOP nominee for president in 2028,” reigniting speculation about his candidacy
Tucker Carlson rises to 3%1%
The Guardian published a commentary suggesting Carlson is “the most likely GOP nominee for president in 2028,” reigniting speculation about his candidacy
Apr 25 2026
Vance’s presence during the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting and continued active vice-presidential role maintain his visibility and political relevance, supporting a
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
Vance’s presence during the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting and continued active vice-presidential role maintain his visibility and political relevance, supporting a slight
Apr 24 2026
White House insiders increasingly view Rubio as a serious 2028 contender due to his foreign policy success and MAGA base appeal
Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%
Growing admiration within Trump’s circle and among MAGA supporters solidified Rubio’s position as a leading alternative to Vance.
Apr 10 2026
Kamala Harris publicly signals she is "thinking about" running for president again at the National Action Network convention, receiving strong support and standing ovations
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
This explicit and widely reported hint at a 2028 bid marked a significant positive market reaction, reflecting renewed investor confidence in her candidacy.
Apr 6 2026
Coverage highlights AOC's quiet but serious positioning for a 2028 presidential bid amid a tumultuous political environment, enhancing her profile as a potential nominee
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 6%1%
This renewed media focus on her potential candidacy aligns with a slight uptick in market
Mar 31 2026
Announcement of Vance’s upcoming book "Communion: Finding My Way Back To Faith" intensifies speculation about a 2028 run, as book releases often precede campaigns, causing a modest
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
Announcement of Vance’s upcoming book "Communion: Finding My Way Back To Faith" intensifies speculation about a 2028 run, as book releases often precede campaigns, causing a modest
Mar 16 2026
Rubio’s prominent role in the Iran conflict elevates his profile as a potential 2028 presidential contender
Marco Rubio rises to 12%4%
His handling of the Iran war and Trump’s informal polling of GOP donors favoring Rubio boosted market confidence in his candidacy.
Mar 12 2026
Newsom’s remarks during a book tour stop in Atlanta, where he emphasized his academic struggles, spark backlash and criticism from Donald Trump and others, causing a dip in his
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%2%
Newsom’s remarks during a book tour stop in Atlanta, where he emphasized his academic struggles, spark backlash and criticism from Donald Trump and others, causing a dip in his perceived viability
Mar 6 2026
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene floated that Tucker Carlson should run for president in 2028 while defending him against Trump’s “lost his way” comment
Tucker Carlson rises to 2%1%
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene floated that Tucker Carlson should run for president in 2028 while defending him against Trump’s “lost his way” comment
Mar 1 2026
Trump indicates he is "considering" a 2028 run but gives it a "fifty-fifty" chance, maintaining some market interest but no strong momentum
Donald Trump rises to 4%2%
Trump indicates he is "considering" a 2028 run but gives it a "fifty-fifty" chance, maintaining some market interest but no strong momentum
Feb 6 2026
The New York Times reports AOC as an increasingly sought-after leader within the Democratic Party, helping steer it toward a populist, working-class message
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 6%1%
Recognition of her growing influence within the party may have contributed to a modest
Jan 20 2026
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Newsom sharply criticizes global leaders and mocks Trump supporters with "kneepads" fundraising merchandise, maintaining high visibility and
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%1%
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Newsom sharply criticizes global leaders and mocks Trump supporters with "kneepads" fundraising merchandise, maintaining high visibility and stirring mixed reactions
Jan 10 2026
GOP discussion heats up around Rubio’s role in Venezuela policy under Trump’s administration
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
Rubio’s leadership in complex foreign policy issues raised his stature as a viable 2028 candidate, contributing to.
Jan 8 2026
Market dip coincides with Vance publicly calling a 2028 run "premature" and emphasizing focus on current duties, which tempered enthusiasm and led to a
JD Vance drops to 26%5%
Market dip coincides with Vance publicly calling a 2028 run "premature" and emphasizing focus on current duties, which tempered enthusiasm and led to a
Dec 21 2025
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for president and commits the influential conservative group’s support in key early primary states, boosting his profile among
JD Vance rises to 31%3%
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for president and commits the influential conservative group’s support in key early primary states, boosting his profile among GOP voters
Dec 14 2025
Reports emerge that Harris is actively laying groundwork for a 2028 White House run, including meeting donors and promoting her memoir "107 Days"
Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%
Media coverage of her political activity and campaign preparations contributed to a modest
Dec 9 2025
Supreme Court oral arguments highlight Vance's likely presidential ambitions, with legal discussions framing him as a probable 2028 candidate, increasing market confidence
JD Vance rises to 31%3%
Supreme Court oral arguments highlight Vance's likely presidential ambitions, with legal discussions framing him as a probable 2028 candidate, increasing market confidence
Dec 2 2025
Trump clearly states he will not be the 2028 Republican nominee, endorsing potential successors like JD Vance and Marco Rubio, reducing his chances
Donald Trump dips to 2%1%
Trump clearly states he will not be the 2028 Republican nominee, endorsing potential successors like JD Vance and Marco Rubio, reducing his chances
Nov 17 2025
Ted Cruz publicly attacked Tucker Carlson over his opposition to the U.S.
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
missile strike on Iran, calling Carlson “bat‑crap crazy” on foreign policy
Nov 7 2025
Rubio privately tells confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for 2028 and pledges support if Vance runs
Marco Rubio rises to 7%3%
This admission clarified Rubio's position as a loyal party player, which may have stabilized his odds after earlier declines.
Nov 4 2025
Newsom’s Proposition 50 wins in California, transferring redistricting power to Democrats and potentially adding congressional seats, strengthening his position as a top
Gavin Newsom rises to 23%2%
Newsom’s Proposition 50 wins in California, transferring redistricting power to Democrats and potentially adding congressional seats, strengthening his position as a top Democratic contender for 2028
Oct 28 2025
Trump publicly rules out running for vice president in 2028 but says he "would love" a third term, keeping uncertainty alive
Donald Trump rises to 3%1%
Trump publicly rules out running for vice president in 2028 but says he "would love" a third term, keeping uncertainty alive
Oct 26 2025
Ocasio-Cortez appears with Bernie Sanders and Zohran Mamdani at a campaign rally in New York, signaling alignment with influential progressive figures ahead of 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%2%
This public association with prominent progressives likely boosted market optimism, reflected in the
Oct 25 2025
Kamala Harris tells BBC she "possibly" could run for president again, stating "I am not done" and expressing confidence in a future female president
Kamala Harris rises to 3%1%
Her first UK interview gave the strongest indication yet of a potential 2028 run, raising market interest after a period of low
Oct 23 2025
Newsom states in a CBS News interview he will give "serious thought" to a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms, signaling openness to candidacy and increasing market
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom states in a CBS News interview he will give "serious thought" to a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms, signaling openness to candidacy and increasing market interest
Sep 19 2025
Ocasio-Cortez and her team position her to run for president or U.S. Senate in 2028, spending millions on social media and acquiring supporter lists to expand grassroots fundraising
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%3%
Despite the strategic buildup, uncertainty about her decision may have contributed to a
Aug 14 2025
Gavin Newsom publicly accuses Donald Trump of attempting to rig elections for a third term and announces a special California election to counter GOP redistricting efforts,
Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%5%
Gavin Newsom publicly accuses Donald Trump of attempting to rig elections for a third term and announces a special California election to counter GOP redistricting efforts, raising his national profile and energizing speculation about his presidential ambitions
Aug 5 2025
Trump states in an interview he would "probably not" run for a third term in 2028, dampening market enthusiasm
Donald Trump dips to 2%1%
Trump states in an interview he would "probably not" run for a third term in 2028, dampening market enthusiasm
Jul 30 2025
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor in 2026, leaving the door open for a 2028 presidential bid
Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%
This decision ended speculation about a gubernatorial run and suggested she might focus on a future presidential campaign, slightly boosting market confidence.
Jul 27 2025
Marco Rubio hints at a possible 2028 presidential run while emphasizing focus on current role; praises Vice President JD Vance as a strong potential candidate
Rubio publicly acknowledged the possibility of running in 2028, signaling early interest that kept market attention steady.
Jul 11 2025
Marco Rubio publicly speculates that JD Vance would be a strong Republican nominee for 2028, fueling early market optimism about Vance's candidacy potential
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Marco Rubio publicly speculates that JD Vance would be a strong Republican nominee for 2028, fueling early market optimism about Vance's candidacy potential
May 1 2025
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez raises $15 million in 2025 and draws massive crowds nationwide, positioning herself as a potential frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
This fundraising success and national visibility solidified AOC's status as a serious contender, supporting early market confidence.
Apr 24 2025
Trump Organization begins selling "Trump 2028" hats, fueling speculation about a third presidential term despite constitutional limits
Donald Trump drops to 3%7%
Trump Organization begins selling "Trump 2028" hats, fueling speculation about a third presidential term despite constitutional limits
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner at 21.6% implied probability on Polymarket, closely pursued by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.8%, underscoring a fragmented early field two years before primaries. Recent drivers include a late-March UMass Lowell poll showing Vance edging Newsom 33%-30% head-to-head, Rubio's mid-March surge to top prediction markets via foreign policy visibility on Iran tensions, and Newsom's post-2026 midterm considerations amid Democratic soul-searching. The race stays tight due to Vance's incumbency edge offset by Newsom's national attacks on GOP policies and Rubio's GOP straw poll momentum; separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, economic trends under the Trump administration, early primary polling in swing states, or candidate announcements by late 2026.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner at 21.6% implied probability on Polymarket, closely pursued by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.8%, underscoring a fragmented early field two years before primaries. Recent drivers include a late-March UMass Lowell poll showing Vance edging Newsom 33%-30% head-to-head, Rubio's mid-March surge to top prediction markets via foreign policy visibility on Iran tensions, and Newsom's post-2026 midterm considerations amid Democratic soul-searching. The race stays tight due to Vance's incumbency edge offset by Newsom's national attacks on GOP policies and Rubio's GOP straw poll momentum; separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, economic trends under the Trump administration, early primary polling in swing states, or candidate announcements by late 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Apr 28 2026
The Guardian published a commentary suggesting Carlson is “the most likely GOP nominee for president in 2028,” reigniting speculation about his candidacy
Tucker Carlson rises to 3%1%
The Guardian published a commentary suggesting Carlson is “the most likely GOP nominee for president in 2028,” reigniting speculation about his candidacy
Apr 25 2026
Vance’s presence during the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting and continued active vice-presidential role maintain his visibility and political relevance, supporting a
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
Vance’s presence during the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting and continued active vice-presidential role maintain his visibility and political relevance, supporting a slight
Apr 24 2026
White House insiders increasingly view Rubio as a serious 2028 contender due to his foreign policy success and MAGA base appeal
Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%
Growing admiration within Trump’s circle and among MAGA supporters solidified Rubio’s position as a leading alternative to Vance.
Apr 10 2026
Kamala Harris publicly signals she is "thinking about" running for president again at the National Action Network convention, receiving strong support and standing ovations
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
This explicit and widely reported hint at a 2028 bid marked a significant positive market reaction, reflecting renewed investor confidence in her candidacy.
Apr 6 2026
Coverage highlights AOC's quiet but serious positioning for a 2028 presidential bid amid a tumultuous political environment, enhancing her profile as a potential nominee
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 6%1%
This renewed media focus on her potential candidacy aligns with a slight uptick in market
Mar 31 2026
Announcement of Vance’s upcoming book "Communion: Finding My Way Back To Faith" intensifies speculation about a 2028 run, as book releases often precede campaigns, causing a modest
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
Announcement of Vance’s upcoming book "Communion: Finding My Way Back To Faith" intensifies speculation about a 2028 run, as book releases often precede campaigns, causing a modest
Mar 16 2026
Rubio’s prominent role in the Iran conflict elevates his profile as a potential 2028 presidential contender
Marco Rubio rises to 12%4%
His handling of the Iran war and Trump’s informal polling of GOP donors favoring Rubio boosted market confidence in his candidacy.
Mar 12 2026
Newsom’s remarks during a book tour stop in Atlanta, where he emphasized his academic struggles, spark backlash and criticism from Donald Trump and others, causing a dip in his
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%2%
Newsom’s remarks during a book tour stop in Atlanta, where he emphasized his academic struggles, spark backlash and criticism from Donald Trump and others, causing a dip in his perceived viability
Mar 6 2026
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene floated that Tucker Carlson should run for president in 2028 while defending him against Trump’s “lost his way” comment
Tucker Carlson rises to 2%1%
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene floated that Tucker Carlson should run for president in 2028 while defending him against Trump’s “lost his way” comment
Mar 1 2026
Trump indicates he is "considering" a 2028 run but gives it a "fifty-fifty" chance, maintaining some market interest but no strong momentum
Donald Trump rises to 4%2%
Trump indicates he is "considering" a 2028 run but gives it a "fifty-fifty" chance, maintaining some market interest but no strong momentum
Feb 6 2026
The New York Times reports AOC as an increasingly sought-after leader within the Democratic Party, helping steer it toward a populist, working-class message
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 6%1%
Recognition of her growing influence within the party may have contributed to a modest
Jan 20 2026
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Newsom sharply criticizes global leaders and mocks Trump supporters with "kneepads" fundraising merchandise, maintaining high visibility and
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%1%
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Newsom sharply criticizes global leaders and mocks Trump supporters with "kneepads" fundraising merchandise, maintaining high visibility and stirring mixed reactions
Jan 10 2026
GOP discussion heats up around Rubio’s role in Venezuela policy under Trump’s administration
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
Rubio’s leadership in complex foreign policy issues raised his stature as a viable 2028 candidate, contributing to.
Jan 8 2026
Market dip coincides with Vance publicly calling a 2028 run "premature" and emphasizing focus on current duties, which tempered enthusiasm and led to a
JD Vance drops to 26%5%
Market dip coincides with Vance publicly calling a 2028 run "premature" and emphasizing focus on current duties, which tempered enthusiasm and led to a
Dec 21 2025
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for president and commits the influential conservative group’s support in key early primary states, boosting his profile among
JD Vance rises to 31%3%
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for president and commits the influential conservative group’s support in key early primary states, boosting his profile among GOP voters
Dec 14 2025
Reports emerge that Harris is actively laying groundwork for a 2028 White House run, including meeting donors and promoting her memoir "107 Days"
Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%
Media coverage of her political activity and campaign preparations contributed to a modest
Dec 9 2025
Supreme Court oral arguments highlight Vance's likely presidential ambitions, with legal discussions framing him as a probable 2028 candidate, increasing market confidence
JD Vance rises to 31%3%
Supreme Court oral arguments highlight Vance's likely presidential ambitions, with legal discussions framing him as a probable 2028 candidate, increasing market confidence
Dec 2 2025
Trump clearly states he will not be the 2028 Republican nominee, endorsing potential successors like JD Vance and Marco Rubio, reducing his chances
Donald Trump dips to 2%1%
Trump clearly states he will not be the 2028 Republican nominee, endorsing potential successors like JD Vance and Marco Rubio, reducing his chances
Nov 17 2025
Ted Cruz publicly attacked Tucker Carlson over his opposition to the U.S.
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
missile strike on Iran, calling Carlson “bat‑crap crazy” on foreign policy
Nov 7 2025
Rubio privately tells confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for 2028 and pledges support if Vance runs
Marco Rubio rises to 7%3%
This admission clarified Rubio's position as a loyal party player, which may have stabilized his odds after earlier declines.
Nov 4 2025
Newsom’s Proposition 50 wins in California, transferring redistricting power to Democrats and potentially adding congressional seats, strengthening his position as a top
Gavin Newsom rises to 23%2%
Newsom’s Proposition 50 wins in California, transferring redistricting power to Democrats and potentially adding congressional seats, strengthening his position as a top Democratic contender for 2028
Oct 28 2025
Trump publicly rules out running for vice president in 2028 but says he "would love" a third term, keeping uncertainty alive
Donald Trump rises to 3%1%
Trump publicly rules out running for vice president in 2028 but says he "would love" a third term, keeping uncertainty alive
Oct 26 2025
Ocasio-Cortez appears with Bernie Sanders and Zohran Mamdani at a campaign rally in New York, signaling alignment with influential progressive figures ahead of 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%2%
This public association with prominent progressives likely boosted market optimism, reflected in the
Oct 25 2025
Kamala Harris tells BBC she "possibly" could run for president again, stating "I am not done" and expressing confidence in a future female president
Kamala Harris rises to 3%1%
Her first UK interview gave the strongest indication yet of a potential 2028 run, raising market interest after a period of low
Oct 23 2025
Newsom states in a CBS News interview he will give "serious thought" to a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms, signaling openness to candidacy and increasing market
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom states in a CBS News interview he will give "serious thought" to a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms, signaling openness to candidacy and increasing market interest
Sep 19 2025
Ocasio-Cortez and her team position her to run for president or U.S. Senate in 2028, spending millions on social media and acquiring supporter lists to expand grassroots fundraising
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 5%3%
Despite the strategic buildup, uncertainty about her decision may have contributed to a
Aug 14 2025
Gavin Newsom publicly accuses Donald Trump of attempting to rig elections for a third term and announces a special California election to counter GOP redistricting efforts,
Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%5%
Gavin Newsom publicly accuses Donald Trump of attempting to rig elections for a third term and announces a special California election to counter GOP redistricting efforts, raising his national profile and energizing speculation about his presidential ambitions
Aug 5 2025
Trump states in an interview he would "probably not" run for a third term in 2028, dampening market enthusiasm
Donald Trump dips to 2%1%
Trump states in an interview he would "probably not" run for a third term in 2028, dampening market enthusiasm
Jul 30 2025
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor in 2026, leaving the door open for a 2028 presidential bid
Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%
This decision ended speculation about a gubernatorial run and suggested she might focus on a future presidential campaign, slightly boosting market confidence.
Jul 27 2025
Marco Rubio hints at a possible 2028 presidential run while emphasizing focus on current role; praises Vice President JD Vance as a strong potential candidate
Rubio publicly acknowledged the possibility of running in 2028, signaling early interest that kept market attention steady.
Jul 11 2025
Marco Rubio publicly speculates that JD Vance would be a strong Republican nominee for 2028, fueling early market optimism about Vance's candidacy potential
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Marco Rubio publicly speculates that JD Vance would be a strong Republican nominee for 2028, fueling early market optimism about Vance's candidacy potential
May 1 2025
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez raises $15 million in 2025 and draws massive crowds nationwide, positioning herself as a potential frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
This fundraising success and national visibility solidified AOC's status as a serious contender, supporting early market confidence.
Apr 24 2025
Trump Organization begins selling "Trump 2028" hats, fueling speculation about a third presidential term despite constitutional limits
Donald Trump drops to 3%7%
Trump Organization begins selling "Trump 2028" hats, fueling speculation about a third presidential term despite constitutional limits
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Często zadawane pytania
"Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 36 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "JD Vance" z 22%, za nim "Gavin Newsom" z 17%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 22¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 22% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.
Na dzień dzisiejszy "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" wygenerował $561.6 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Jul 11, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.
Aby handlować na "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028", przeglądaj 36 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.
Obecnym faworytem dla "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" jest "JD Vance" z 22%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 22% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Gavin Newsom" z 17%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.
Zasady rozstrzygania "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.
Tak. Nie musisz handlować, aby być na bieżąco. Ta strona służy jako tracker na żywo dla "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028". Prawdopodobieństwa wyników aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym z każdą nową transakcją. Możesz dodać tę stronę do zakładek i sprawdzić sekcję komentarzy, aby zobaczyć, co myślą inni traderzy. Możesz też użyć filtrów zakresu czasu na wykresie, aby zobaczyć, jak kursy zmieniały się w czasie. To darmowe, działające w czasie rzeczywistym okno na to, czego rynek oczekuje.
Kursy Polymarket ustalane są przez prawdziwych traderów stawiających prawdziwe pieniądze za swoimi przekonaniami, co zwykle prowadzi do trafnych prognoz. Z $561.6 million wolumenu na "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028", ceny te agregują zbiorową wiedzę i zaangażowanie tysięcy uczestników — często przewyższając sondaże, prognozy ekspertów i tradycyjne badania. Rynki prognoz jak Polymarket mają silną historię trafności, szczególnie gdy wydarzenia zbliżają się do rozstrzygnięcia. Na przykład, Polymarket ma miesięczny wynik trafności 94%. Najnowsze statystyki trafności prognoz Polymarket znajdziesz na stronie trafności na Polymarket.
Aby złożyć swoje pierwsze zlecenie na "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028", zarejestruj darmowe konto Polymarket i doładuj je kryptowalutą, kartą kredytową lub debetową albo przelewem bankowym. Po doładowaniu konta wróć na tę stronę, wybierz wynik, na który chcesz handlować, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli jesteś nowy w rynkach prognoz, kliknij link "Jak to działa" na górze dowolnej strony Polymarket, aby zobaczyć szybki przewodnik krok po kroku.
Na Polymarket cena każdego wyniku reprezentuje implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Cena 22¢ za "JD Vance" na rynku "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" oznacza, że traderzy zbiorowo wierzą, iż istnieje w przybliżeniu 22% szansy na to, że "JD Vance" będzie poprawnym wynikiem. Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" po 22¢ i wynik jest poprawny, otrzymasz $1.00 za udział — zysk 78¢ za udział. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, te udziały są warte $0.
Rynek "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" to prognoza długoterminowa z datą rozstrzygnięcia Nov 7, 2028 — to w przybliżeniu ponad 3 lat. Długoterminowe rynki na Polymarket często widzą znaczne zmiany kursów w miarę rozwoju wydarzeń, co czyni je przydatnymi do śledzenia ewolucji nastrojów. Możesz handlować w dowolnym momencie lub dodać tę stronę do zakładek.
Rynek "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" ma aktywną społeczność z 875 komentarzami, gdzie traderzy dzielą się swoimi analizami, debatują nad wynikami i omawiają najnowsze wydarzenia. Przewiń w dół do sekcji komentarzy, aby przeczytać, co myślą inni uczestnicy. Możesz też filtrować według "Najwięksi posiadacze", aby zobaczyć, na co postawiły największe portfele rynku, lub sprawdzić zakładkę "Aktywność" dla transmisji transakcji na żywo.
Polymarket to największy na świecie rynek prognoz, na którym możesz być na bieżąco i czerpać zyski ze swojej wiedzy o wydarzeniach w świecie rzeczywistym. Traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały w wynikach tematów od polityki i wyborów po kryptowaluty, finanse, sport, technologię i kulturę, w tym rynki takie jak "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028". Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym poparte finansowym zaangażowaniem, często dostarczając szybsze i trafniejsze sygnały niż sondaże, komentatorzy czy tradycyjne badania.
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