Trader consensus prices "No" at 68.5% for a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by the April 8 ceasefire that halted the 2026 Iran war's intense airstrike phase between U.S.-Israeli forces and Tehran, avoiding any boots-on-the-ground commitment despite prior military buildup rivaling 2003 Iraq levels. Recent escalations—including Iranian strikes damaging most U.S. Middle East bases as of May 1 and stalled Pakistan-mediated peace talks over Strait of Hormuz reopening and nuclear issues—have prompted U.S. Treasury sanctions under "Economic Fury" rather than invasion plans. With diplomacy faltering but no confirmed ground troop deployments amid high costs from Iraq-Afghanistan precedents, traders anticipate air, naval, or economic measures prevailing through 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$19,223,891 거래량
$19,223,891 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$19,223,891 거래량
$19,223,891 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices "No" at 68.5% for a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by the April 8 ceasefire that halted the 2026 Iran war's intense airstrike phase between U.S.-Israeli forces and Tehran, avoiding any boots-on-the-ground commitment despite prior military buildup rivaling 2003 Iraq levels. Recent escalations—including Iranian strikes damaging most U.S. Middle East bases as of May 1 and stalled Pakistan-mediated peace talks over Strait of Hormuz reopening and nuclear issues—have prompted U.S. Treasury sanctions under "Economic Fury" rather than invasion plans. With diplomacy faltering but no confirmed ground troop deployments amid high costs from Iraq-Afghanistan precedents, traders anticipate air, naval, or economic measures prevailing through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
거래량
$19,223,891종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices "No" at 68.5% for a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by the April 8 ceasefire that halted the 2026 Iran war's intense airstrike phase between U.S.-Israeli forces and Tehran, avoiding any boots-on-the-ground commitment despite prior military buildup rivaling 2003 Iraq levels. Recent escalations—including Iranian strikes damaging most U.S. Middle East bases as of May 1 and stalled Pakistan-mediated peace talks over Strait of Hormuz reopening and nuclear issues—have prompted U.S. Treasury sanctions under "Economic Fury" rather than invasion plans. With diplomacy faltering but no confirmed ground troop deployments amid high costs from Iraq-Afghanistan precedents, traders anticipate air, naval, or economic measures prevailing through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
거래량
$19,223,891종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 68.5% for a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by the April 8 ceasefire that halted the 2026 Iran war's intense airstrike phase between U.S.-Israeli forces and Tehran, avoiding any boots-on-the-ground commitment despite prior military buildup rivaling 2003 Iraq levels. Recent escalations—including Iranian strikes damaging most U.S. Middle East bases as of May 1 and stalled Pakistan-mediated peace talks over Strait of Hormuz reopening and nuclear issues—have prompted U.S. Treasury sanctions under "Economic Fury" rather than invasion plans. With diplomacy faltering but no confirmed ground troop deployments amid high costs from Iraq-Afghanistan precedents, traders anticipate air, naval, or economic measures prevailing through 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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