Axios notes AOC’s “hide‑and‑seek” media strategy—she stops granting interviews for most of 2025 after the Munich trip—causing traders to doubt her candidacy and driving the

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez drops to 8%6%

Axios notes AOC’s “hide‑and‑seek” media strategy—she stops granting interviews for most of 2025 after the Munich trip—causing traders to doubt her candidacy and driving the

Newsom signed an executive order mandating personal‑finance classes for all California high‑schoolers and targeting the gender‑wealth gap, a policy win that broadened his appeal

Gavin Newsom rises to 27%3%

Newsom signed an executive order mandating personal‑finance classes for all California high‑schoolers and targeting the gender‑wealth gap, a policy win that broadened his appeal to moderate and progressive voters

Guardian reports “fiery speech” and mounting speculation that Ossoff could launch a 2028 bid A high‑profile rally in Augusta and media chatter about a possible presidential run

Guardian reports “fiery speech” and mounting speculation that Ossoff could launch a 2028 bid A high‑profile rally in Augusta and media chatter about a possible presidential run briefly lifted the.

Sen. Mark Kelly remains undecided on 2028 presidential run amid ongoing speculation

Mark Kelly rises to 3%1%

Kelly publicly stated he had not yet decided whether to run, maintaining ambiguity and limiting market enthusiasm, reflected in a slight.

Ossoff delivers a fiery speech criticizing the Trump family amid rising speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, but he still officially denies any interest in running

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

Market shows minor increase on speculation but tempered by his denials.

Harris signals she is “thinking about” a 2028 run at National Action Network convention – Harris’s explicit comment that she was “thinking about” another presidential bid at the

Kamala Harris jumps to 9%5%

Harris signals she is “thinking about” a 2028 run at National Action Network convention – Harris’s explicit comment that she was “thinking about” another presidential bid at the April 2026 conference provided the clearest signal of a possible campaign, driving the

ABC 27 reports Shapiro speaks at Al Sharpton’s National Action Network convention, joining other potential 2028 hopefuls;

the appearance raises his national profile but does not alter his gubernatorial focus, keeping the

Newsom’s self‑deprecating interview in Atlanta (admitting dyslexia and low SAT scores) drew sharp criticism from Donald Trump and others, causing a noticeable dip in his odds

Gavin Newsom drops to 25%5%

Newsom’s self‑deprecating interview in Atlanta (admitting dyslexia and low SAT scores) drew sharp criticism from Donald Trump and others, causing a noticeable dip in his odds

President Trump attacks Newsom on Truth Social, calling him “no longer viable” after a controversial Atlanta book‑tour interview – The negative Trump commentary and fallout from

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%

President Trump attacks Newsom on Truth Social, calling him “no longer viable” after a controversial Atlanta book‑tour interview – The negative Trump commentary and fallout from the interview caused the market to retreat in early 2026.

C‑SPAN video shows Beshear teasing a possible run while emphasizing focus on midterm gubernatorial races, reinforcing the perception that a presidential bid is still uncertain and

Andy Beshear dips to 3%1%

C‑SPAN video shows Beshear teasing a possible run while emphasizing focus on midterm gubernatorial races, reinforcing the perception that a presidential bid is still uncertain and helping keep the

Beshear announces a new book and again says he has “not made any decision” about 2028, providing a modest uptick in odds as the market briefly reassesses his intent

Andy Beshear rises to 4%2%

Beshear announces a new book and again says he has “not made any decision” about 2028, providing a modest uptick in odds as the market briefly reassesses his intent

Newsom toured South Carolina, meeting party chairs and voters in early‑primary states, reinforcing speculation about a 2028 bid and stabilizing his market

Gavin Newsom dips to 30%4%

Newsom toured South Carolina, meeting party chairs and voters in early‑primary states, reinforcing speculation about a 2028 bid and stabilizing his market

At a campaign rally in Atlanta, Ossoff intensifies his Senate re-election efforts and criticizes the Trump administration, but again dismisses any presidential aspirations for 2028

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%1%

Slight uptick possibly due to increased visibility but no change in presidential run stance.

Ossoff appears at a Georgia rally as the No.

3 favorite on Kalshi’s 2028 Democratic‑nominee list His campaign event in Atlanta and the market’s ranking of him third behind other contenders revived modest interest, nudging the.

Newsom appeared at the World Economic Forum in Davos, delivering a scathing critique of Trump and promoting his “kneepad” fundraiser, which raised his visibility among global and

Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%

Newsom appeared at the World Economic Forum in Davos, delivering a scathing critique of Trump and promoting his “kneepad” fundraiser, which raised his visibility among global and domestic audiences

Newsom appears at the World Economic Forum in Davos, delivering a hard‑line anti‑Trump speech and teasing a future presidential run – The international stage and explicit “serious

Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%

Newsom appears at the World Economic Forum in Davos, delivering a hard‑line anti‑Trump speech and teasing a future presidential run – The international stage and explicit “serious thought” hint boosted the market to its January peak.

In a Bill Maher interview Shapiro says he “refuses to take any bait” on 2028 speculation, reinforcing his non‑candidate stance and pulling the

Josh Shapiro dips to 4%3%

In a Bill Maher interview Shapiro says he “refuses to take any bait” on 2028 speculation, reinforcing his non‑candidate stance and pulling the

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announces administrative measures against Kelly, including retirement pay reduction

Mark Kelly dips to 2%2%

The Pentagon's move to discipline Kelly for his participation in the controversial video, including reducing his retirement benefits, intensified legal battles and uncertainty about his campaign prospects, leading to a.

New poll shows Harris leading early 2028 field, boosting her chances – A December 2025 survey by the Center for American Political Studies and the Harris Poll gave Harris a 50 %

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

New poll shows Harris leading early 2028 field, boosting her chances – A December 2025 survey by the Center for American Political Studies and the Harris Poll gave Harris a 50 % lead among Democratic contenders, prompting a modest uptick in the market.

A Hill poll shows AOC leading among young voters in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary, giving her a measurable boost in perceived electability and lifting the market to a

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 14%3%

A Hill poll shows AOC leading among young voters in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary, giving her a measurable boost in perceived electability and lifting the market to a short‑term high

Politico details Pennsylvania GOP challenger Stacy Garrity’s attack ad accusing Shapiro of “thirsting for a White House bid,” briefly reviving speculation and nudging the market

Josh Shapiro rises to 7%1%

Politico details Pennsylvania GOP challenger Stacy Garrity’s attack ad accusing Shapiro of “thirsting for a White House bid,” briefly reviving speculation and nudging the market up a few points

Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized Newsom’s veto of a menopause‑care bill, generating a media flare‑up that kept him in the headlines and nudged his odds upward

Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%

Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized Newsom’s veto of a menopause‑care bill, generating a media flare‑up that kept him in the headlines and nudged his odds upward

Actress Halle Berry publicly criticises Newsom for vetoing a menopause bill, questioning his presidential suitability – The high‑profile cultural backlash softened enthusiasm,

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

Actress Halle Berry publicly criticises Newsom for vetoing a menopause bill, questioning his presidential suitability – The high‑profile cultural backlash softened enthusiasm, pulling the

Mark Kelly raises over $12.5 million in Q4 2025, boosting his national profile

Mark Kelly rises to 4%2%

Kelly's strong fundraising haul and increased visibility, partly fueled by Trump's attacks, elevated his standing as a potential 2028 contender, causing a modest.

Pentagon announces investigation into Mark Kelly over "illegal orders" video amid Trump attacks

Following President Trump's public accusations of sedition against Kelly and other Democrats for a video urging military personnel to refuse illegal orders, the Department of Defense announced an investigation into Kelly, raising legal and political risks for his potential candidacy.

California voters approve Proposition 50, giving the Democratic‑controlled legislature power over congressional maps – The win was billed by Newsom as a “big win for Democrats”

Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%

California voters approve Proposition 50, giving the Democratic‑controlled legislature power over congressional maps – The win was billed by Newsom as a “big win for Democrats” and a showcase of his ability to reshape national politics, prompting a sharp

California voters approved Proposition 50, giving the Democratic‑controlled legislature power over congressional maps and positioning Newsom as a leader against Republican

Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%

California voters approved Proposition 50, giving the Democratic‑controlled legislature power over congressional maps and positioning Newsom as a leader against Republican gerrymandering

Harris tells BBC she may run for president again, sparking fresh speculation – In a televised interview Harris said she “possibly” could run in 2028, reviving media attention and

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

Harris tells BBC she may run for president again, sparking fresh speculation – In a televised interview Harris said she “possibly” could run in 2028, reviving media attention and lifting the market slightly after a long period of low

During a New Hampshire visit, Beshear tells reporters he’ll “consider” a run, but offers no timeline, prompting the market to slide back toward the low single‑digits

Andy Beshear dips to 4%1%

During a New Hampshire visit, Beshear tells reporters he’ll “consider” a run, but offers no timeline, prompting the market to slide back toward the low single‑digits

Axios reports that AOC’s team is spending millions on digital ads and building a grassroots donor list to position her for either a Senate seat or a presidential run in 2028,

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 11%2%

Axios reports that AOC’s team is spending millions on digital ads and building a grassroots donor list to position her for either a Senate seat or a presidential run in 2028, reviving speculation and pushing the

PBS reports Shapiro formally announces a second‑term gubernatorial run and, on “Meet the Press,” is asked to rule out a 2028 presidential bid, which he does, dampening

Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%24%

PBS reports Shapiro formally announces a second‑term gubernatorial run and, on “Meet the Press,” is asked to rule out a 2028 presidential bid, which he does, dampening expectations for a nomination

Newsom warns of a “Trump 2028” third‑term plot and proposes a special California redistricting election – The dramatic warning and the proposal of a Nov.

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

4 statewide vote thrust Newsom into the national spotlight as a vocal anti‑Trump figure, nudging the market upward.

Newsom warned that Donald Trump is plotting a “third‑term” run and unveiled a special California election to block GOP redistricting, sparking viral mockery and boosting his

Gavin Newsom jumps to 29%9%

Newsom warned that Donald Trump is plotting a “third‑term” run and unveiled a special California election to block GOP redistricting, sparking viral mockery and boosting his national profile

Sen. Mark Kelly declines to confirm 2028 presidential run, signaling uncertainty

Mark Kelly plunges to 1%49%

Kelly gave a noncommittal answer when asked on CNN if he was considering a 2028 presidential bid, despite campaigning in key battleground states Michigan and Pennsylvania, which caused a sharp drop in market confidence.

Georgia Democrats push for a 2028 national convention, but Ossoff reiterates no interest in a presidential run, focusing instead on serving Georgia and the upcoming midterms

Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%

Continued public distancing from presidential speculation kept his market

During a town‑hall in upstate New York, AOC says she “won’t rule out a 2028 presidential run,” reopening the possibility of a campaign and nudging the market back up

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 13%3%

During a town‑hall in upstate New York, AOC says she “won’t rule out a 2028 presidential run,” reopening the possibility of a campaign and nudging the market back up

Newsmax reports Beshear’s “take a look” comment on “Meet the Press,” reinforcing speculation and keeping the

Andy Beshear dips to 5%3%

Newsmax reports Beshear’s “take a look” comment on “Meet the Press,” reinforcing speculation and keeping the

Beshear says on “Meet the Press” he may “take a look” at a 2028 presidential run, sparking a short‑term

Andy Beshear plunges to 8%42%

Beshear says on “Meet the Press” he may “take a look” at a 2028 presidential run, sparking a short‑term

Jon Ossoff publicly states he has "zero interest" in running for president in 2028 during an interview with Jen Psaki, emphasizing his focus on the 2026 midterm elections and his Senate re-election campaign

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

This early and clear denial of presidential ambitions caused a sharp drop in market confidence in his nomination chances.

Reddit users note “Josh Shapiro is unofficially running for President” and point to his progressive record on Israel‑Palestine, sparking early market optimism that he could be a

Josh Shapiro plunges to 30%20%

Reddit users note “Josh Shapiro is unofficially running for President” and point to his progressive record on Israel‑Palestine, sparking early market optimism that he could be a top 2028 contender

Ossoff says he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential run, urging Democrats to focus on midterms The senator’s blunt dismissal of any 2028 ambitions on MS NOW sparked a sharp

Ossoff says he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential run, urging Democrats to focus on midterms The senator’s blunt dismissal of any 2028 ambitions on MS NOW sparked a sharp drop in his nomination odds, driving the market down from its July 11 peak .

AOC tells reporters at the Munich Security Conference she is “not running for president” and “has not made any decision about a horse race,” deflecting early‑2025 speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%

AOC tells reporters at the Munich Security Conference she is “not running for president” and “has not made any decision about a horse race,” deflecting early‑2025 speculation about a 2028 bid