Microsoft's release of a new MAI (Microsoft AI) model on April 30—explicitly part of its in-house family and publicly accessible via Azure AI Foundry—has driven trader consensus to a 99.8% implied probability for the outcome "by April 30," with $158K in volume reflecting rapid sentiment shift from 22% earlier that day. This follows earlier April launches like MAI-Transcribe-1 (top speech-to-text accuracy), MAI-Voice-1, and the efficiency-upgraded MAI-Image-2, underscoring Microsoft's strategic pivot to reduce OpenAI dependence amid competition from Google's Gemini and Anthropic's Claude. Traders anticipate further advancements at Microsoft Build (June 2-3), though the market remains in review pending official resolution confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$193,851 Vol.
2026/06/30
April 30
100%
$193,851 Vol.
April 30
$192,336 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases any new MAI model that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “new MAI model” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family, including new base models or successors within that family.
Any releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar variants will count for this market.
Products labeled as outside of the MAI family will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (microsoft.ai), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's release of a new MAI (Microsoft AI) model on April 30—explicitly part of its in-house family and publicly accessible via Azure AI Foundry—has driven trader consensus to a 99.8% implied probability for the outcome "by April 30," with $158K in volume reflecting rapid sentiment shift from 22% earlier that day. This follows earlier April launches like MAI-Transcribe-1 (top speech-to-text accuracy), MAI-Voice-1, and the efficiency-upgraded MAI-Image-2, underscoring Microsoft's strategic pivot to reduce OpenAI dependence amid competition from Google's Gemini and Anthropic's Claude. Traders anticipate further advancements at Microsoft Build (June 2-3), though the market remains in review pending official resolution confirmation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases any new MAI model that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “new MAI model” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family, including new base models or successors within that family.
Any releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar variants will count for this market.
Products labeled as outside of the MAI family will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (microsoft.ai), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “new MAI model” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family, including new base models or successors within that family.
Any releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar variants will count for this market.
Products labeled as outside of the MAI family will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (microsoft.ai), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Apr 13, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
音量
$193,851終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: No
異議申し立て
提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立て
最終審査
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases any new MAI model that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “new MAI model” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family, including new base models or successors within that family.
Any releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar variants will count for this market.
Products labeled as outside of the MAI family will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (microsoft.ai), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's release of a new MAI (Microsoft AI) model on April 30—explicitly part of its in-house family and publicly accessible via Azure AI Foundry—has driven trader consensus to a 99.8% implied probability for the outcome "by April 30," with $158K in volume reflecting rapid sentiment shift from 22% earlier that day. This follows earlier April launches like MAI-Transcribe-1 (top speech-to-text accuracy), MAI-Voice-1, and the efficiency-upgraded MAI-Image-2, underscoring Microsoft's strategic pivot to reduce OpenAI dependence amid competition from Google's Gemini and Anthropic's Claude. Traders anticipate further advancements at Microsoft Build (June 2-3), though the market remains in review pending official resolution confirmation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases any new MAI model that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “new MAI model” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family, including new base models or successors within that family.
Any releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar variants will count for this market.
Products labeled as outside of the MAI family will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (microsoft.ai), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “new MAI model” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family, including new base models or successors within that family.
Any releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar variants will count for this market.
Products labeled as outside of the MAI family will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (microsoft.ai), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$193,851終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: No
異議申し立て
提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立て
最終審査
Microsoft's release of a new MAI (Microsoft AI) model on April 30—explicitly part of its in-house family and publicly accessible via Azure AI Foundry—has driven trader consensus to a 99.8% implied probability for the outcome "by April 30," with $158K in volume reflecting rapid sentiment shift from 22% earlier that day. This follows earlier April launches like MAI-Transcribe-1 (top speech-to-text accuracy), MAI-Voice-1, and the efficiency-upgraded MAI-Image-2, underscoring Microsoft's strategic pivot to reduce OpenAI dependence amid competition from Google's Gemini and Anthropic's Claude. Traders anticipate further advancements at Microsoft Build (June 2-3), though the market remains in review pending official resolution confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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