Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's internal consolidation under Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominance, sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian in late April amid unverified coup rumors that quickly dissipated without evidence of organized military opposition to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. No confirmed plots, defections, or factional uprisings have emerged in the past week, as IRGC commanders like Ahmad Vahidi reportedly tightened control over decision-making during the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Persistent protests and economic strain persist, but IRGC loyalty and surveillance suppress threats, lowering coup odds despite external U.S. strikes and collapsed ceasefire talks last week. Barring major war escalations sparking defections by June 30, structural barriers favor stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$655,459 Vol.
$655,459 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$655,459 Vol.
$655,459 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's internal consolidation under Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominance, sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian in late April amid unverified coup rumors that quickly dissipated without evidence of organized military opposition to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. No confirmed plots, defections, or factional uprisings have emerged in the past week, as IRGC commanders like Ahmad Vahidi reportedly tightened control over decision-making during the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Persistent protests and economic strain persist, but IRGC loyalty and surveillance suppress threats, lowering coup odds despite external U.S. strikes and collapsed ceasefire talks last week. Barring major war escalations sparking defections by June 30, structural barriers favor stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
音量
$655,459終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's internal consolidation under Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominance, sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian in late April amid unverified coup rumors that quickly dissipated without evidence of organized military opposition to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. No confirmed plots, defections, or factional uprisings have emerged in the past week, as IRGC commanders like Ahmad Vahidi reportedly tightened control over decision-making during the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Persistent protests and economic strain persist, but IRGC loyalty and surveillance suppress threats, lowering coup odds despite external U.S. strikes and collapsed ceasefire talks last week. Barring major war escalations sparking defections by June 30, structural barriers favor stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$655,459終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's internal consolidation under Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominance, sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian in late April amid unverified coup rumors that quickly dissipated without evidence of organized military opposition to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. No confirmed plots, defections, or factional uprisings have emerged in the past week, as IRGC commanders like Ahmad Vahidi reportedly tightened control over decision-making during the ongoing 2026 Iran war. Persistent protests and economic strain persist, but IRGC loyalty and surveillance suppress threats, lowering coup odds despite external U.S. strikes and collapsed ceasefire talks last week. Barring major war escalations sparking defections by June 30, structural barriers favor stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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