France edges trader consensus at 16.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by March friendlies including a 3-1 victory over Colombia showcasing Kylian Mbappé's form and squad depth, while Spain sits close at 15.3% off Euro 2024 momentum and Lamine Yamal's emergence. The tight race among Europe and South America's elite—England (11.1%), Argentina and Brazil (8.6%)—stems from the December group draw separating powerhouses like these until semifinals or later if they top groups, alongside comfortable qualification paths ending March 31 with no major upsets or injuries disrupting rosters. An expanded 48-team format amplifies dark horse potential, keeping probabilities bunched amid uncertain knockout matchups.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiPemenang Piala Dunia FIFA 2026
Pemenang Piala Dunia FIFA 2026
Prancis 16.8%
Spanyol 15.3%
Inggris 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$873,177,762 Vol.
$873,177,762 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
Prancis
17%
Spanyol
15%
Inggris
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Jerman
5%
Belanda
3%
Norwegia
2%
Jepang
2%
Belgia
2%
Maroko
2%
Kolombia
2%
Amerika Serikat
2%
Uruguay
1%
Meksiko
1%
Croatia
1%
Swiss
1%
Ekuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Turki
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Korea Selatan
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Pantai Gading
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Aljazair
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Skotlandia
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
Selandia Baru
<1%
Yordania
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrika Selatan
<1%
Kongo DR
<1%
Tanjung Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
Prancis 16.8%
Spanyol 15.3%
Inggris 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$873,177,762 Vol.
$873,177,762 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
Prancis
$22,752,308 Vol.
17%
Spanyol
$17,903,039 Vol.
15%
Inggris
$14,675,861 Vol.
11%
Argentina
$15,531,113 Vol.
9%
Brasil
$16,233,474 Vol.
9%
Portugal
$16,844,238 Vol.
7%
Jerman
$14,341,854 Vol.
5%
Belanda
$16,233,596 Vol.
3%
Norwegia
$14,549,220 Vol.
2%
Jepang
$18,012,277 Vol.
2%
Belgia
$14,809,037 Vol.
2%
Maroko
$17,279,270 Vol.
2%
Kolombia
$13,601,344 Vol.
2%
Amerika Serikat
$30,239,214 Vol.
2%
Uruguay
$15,348,803 Vol.
1%
Meksiko
$16,286,409 Vol.
1%
Croatia
$15,881,869 Vol.
1%
Swiss
$14,205,962 Vol.
1%
Ekuador
$18,489,214 Vol.
1%
Senegal
$15,260,002 Vol.
1%
Kanada
$20,466,715 Vol.
1%
Turki
$8,029,049 Vol.
1%
Austria
$15,904,598 Vol.
1%
Sweden
$6,974,104 Vol.
1%
Korea Selatan
$20,719,199 Vol.
<1%
Paraguay
$17,437,129 Vol.
<1%
Pantai Gading
$19,121,552 Vol.
<1%
Egypt
$21,153,241 Vol.
<1%
Aljazair
$19,504,013 Vol.
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
$8,898,900 Vol.
<1%
Skotlandia
$16,743,682 Vol.
<1%
Tunisia
$19,728,283 Vol.
<1%
Czechia
$7,403,959 Vol.
<1%
Selandia Baru
$26,843,330 Vol.
<1%
Yordania
$23,639,280 Vol.
<1%
Curaçao
$33,546,697 Vol.
<1%
Ghana
$16,097,986 Vol.
<1%
Uzbekistan
$36,548,518 Vol.
<1%
Panama
$10,736,685 Vol.
<1%
Irak
$10,771,631 Vol.
<1%
Afrika Selatan
$24,786,165 Vol.
<1%
Kongo DR
$14,213,854 Vol.
<1%
Tanjung Verde
$20,473,502 Vol.
<1%
Qatar
$22,018,988 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$20,715,556 Vol.
<1%
Saudi Arabia
$24,887,719 Vol.
<1%
Haiti
$16,262,828 Vol.
<1%
Iran
$22,147,412 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France edges trader consensus at 16.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by March friendlies including a 3-1 victory over Colombia showcasing Kylian Mbappé's form and squad depth, while Spain sits close at 15.3% off Euro 2024 momentum and Lamine Yamal's emergence. The tight race among Europe and South America's elite—England (11.1%), Argentina and Brazil (8.6%)—stems from the December group draw separating powerhouses like these until semifinals or later if they top groups, alongside comfortable qualification paths ending March 31 with no major upsets or injuries disrupting rosters. An expanded 48-team format amplifies dark horse potential, keeping probabilities bunched amid uncertain knockout matchups.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$873,177,762Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France edges trader consensus at 16.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by March friendlies including a 3-1 victory over Colombia showcasing Kylian Mbappé's form and squad depth, while Spain sits close at 15.3% off Euro 2024 momentum and Lamine Yamal's emergence. The tight race among Europe and South America's elite—England (11.1%), Argentina and Brazil (8.6%)—stems from the December group draw separating powerhouses like these until semifinals or later if they top groups, alongside comfortable qualification paths ending March 31 with no major upsets or injuries disrupting rosters. An expanded 48-team format amplifies dark horse potential, keeping probabilities bunched amid uncertain knockout matchups.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$873,177,762Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...France edges trader consensus at 16.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by March friendlies including a 3-1 victory over Colombia showcasing Kylian Mbappé's form and squad depth, while Spain sits close at 15.3% off Euro 2024 momentum and Lamine Yamal's emergence. The tight race among Europe and South America's elite—England (11.1%), Argentina and Brazil (8.6%)—stems from the December group draw separating powerhouses like these until semifinals or later if they top groups, alongside comfortable qualification paths ending March 31 with no major upsets or injuries disrupting rosters. An expanded 48-team format amplifies dark horse potential, keeping probabilities bunched amid uncertain knockout matchups.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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