US-Iran negotiations for a permanent peace deal, mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad, stalled after the April 12 round when Vice President JD Vance's delegation walked out over Tehran's refusal to commit to nuclear curbs, despite a fragile ceasefire extended by President Trump. Iran's late-April proposal, prioritizing Strait of Hormuz reopening and sanctions relief ahead of atomic limits, ballistic missiles, and regional security terms, met US demands for comprehensive concessions, leaving talks in limbo amid escalating rhetoric. With no second round scheduled and Gulf officials estimating months for any accord, traders price low near-term odds due to unresolved core disputes, though diplomatic pressure from China and Pakistan could prompt breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMarket confidence falls to 30% as no definitive peace deal or public confirmation emerges;
June 30 drops to 30%8%
ongoing deadlock and expanding US demands reduce likelihood of permanent peace deal by June 30
U.S. officials confirmed the continuation of a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the Islamabad talks collapsed, underscoring that military pressure remained and a permanent
May 15 rises to 8%1%
U.S. officials confirmed the continuation of a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the Islamabad talks collapsed, underscoring that military pressure remained and a permanent cease‑fire was unlikely
Market Confidence in May 31 Peace Deal Outcome Hits Low Amid Ongoing Deadlock
May 31 drops to 19%11%
With no definitive peace agreement and continuing disputes over nuclear issues, sanctions, and regional security, market confidence in a permanent peace deal by May 31 dropped to its lowest point, reflecting widespread skepticism.
No new definitive agreement is announced;
April 30 dips to 0%1%
analysts note the stalemate and the imminent cease‑fire expiry, driving the
The US extended the ceasefire indefinitely but with no breakthrough in permanent peace talks;
May 15 dips to 7%1%
Iran's Foreign Minister continued consultations in Moscow and Oman without direct US engagement, and core disputes over sanctions, nuclear program, and regional proxies remained unresolved, leaving traders skeptical about a deal by May 15
CNN notes mediators expect a revised Iranian peace proposal “within days”;
June 30 rises to 44%3%
the possibility of a new offer nudges the odds slightly higher
Reports emerged that Iran refused further direct talks with the US, citing US pressure tactics and maximalist demands, while Pakistan's mediation efforts were undermined by
May 15 dips to 7%3%
Reports emerged that Iran refused further direct talks with the US, citing US pressure tactics and maximalist demands, while Pakistan's mediation efforts were undermined by disinformation campaigns and lack of trust from Tehran, further reducing market confidence in a peace deal by mid-May
The U.S. Senate failed for the sixth time to advance an Iran War Powers Resolution, leaving the cease‑fire fragile and reducing confidence that a permanent peace framework could
May 15 dips to 7%3%
The U.S. Senate failed for the sixth time to advance an Iran War Powers Resolution, leaving the cease‑fire fragile and reducing confidence that a permanent peace framework could be ratified
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a “finger on the trigger” warning, signalling renewed military readiness and suggesting the cease‑fire could break before the May 15 deadline,
May 15 dips to 8%2%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a “finger on the trigger” warning, signalling renewed military readiness and suggesting the cease‑fire could break before the May 15 deadline, pushing the Yes probability down to a low‑single‑digit level
Trump posted a mock‑up image of himself holding a gun on Truth Social, warning Iran to “get smart soon” after peace talks stalled, which further dampened expectations of a lasting
May 15 dips to 10%2%
Trump posted a mock‑up image of himself holding a gun on Truth Social, warning Iran to “get smart soon” after peace talks stalled, which further dampened expectations of a lasting agreement
President Trump reviews Iran’s three-stage peace proposal but maintains firm red lines on nuclear and sanctions issues;
June 30 dips to 49%2%
US-Iran talks remain deadlocked amid fragile ceasefire
President Trump Reviews Iran's Peace Proposal but Remains Unsatisfied
May 31 dips to 27%4%
Trump reviewed Iran's proposal involving reopening the Strait of Hormuz and postponing nuclear talks but expressed dissatisfaction, signaling no imminent breakthrough and contributing to market decline.
Trump scrubs a planned envoy visit to Islamabad, signaling a hardening U.S.
April 30 drops to 1%6%
stance and further diminishing prospects for a permanent deal
US President Donald Trump and his administration showed reluctance to accept Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade and
May 15 dips to 10%2%
US President Donald Trump and his administration showed reluctance to accept Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade and deferring nuclear talks, with US officials emphasizing strict conditions on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief, maintaining a hardline stance that dampened hopes for a near-term deal
U.S. officials reiterate they will not lift the blockade until Iran meets “maximalist” demands; the stalled stance drags the
June 30 drops to 41%6%
U.S. officials reiterate they will not lift the blockade until Iran meets “maximalist” demands; the stalled stance drags the
President Trump announced that U.S.
May 15 dips to 10%2%
negotiators would travel to Pakistan for peace talks, but the same day Vice‑President JD Vance’s planned Islamabad trip was called off, underscoring a sudden diplomatic retreat and further dampening market optimism
Iran, via Pakistani mediators, submits a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war while postponing nuclear talks;
April 30 plunges to 7%34%
the U.S. rejects it as incomplete, sending the market sharply lower
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi Blames US for Failed Talks During Meeting with Putin
May 31 rises to 31%3%
Araghchi criticized US "excessive demands" as the main cause of stalled negotiations during talks in Moscow with Russian President Putin, highlighting diplomatic deadlock and keeping market sentiment subdued.
Reuters: President Trump discusses a new Iranian proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, but he says it is “not enough”; the mixed signal pushes the
June 30 jumps to 55%10%
Reuters: President Trump discusses a new Iranian proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, but he says it is “not enough”; the mixed signal pushes the
Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed excessive US demands for the failure of recent talks during his meeting with Russian President Putin in St.
May 15 dips to 12%3%
Petersburg, while Tehran submitted a new three-stage peace proposal to Pakistan mediators, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and war-ending guarantees; President Trump reviewed the proposal with national security aides but expressed dissatisfaction, signaling stalled progress in negotiations
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Moscow for high‑level talks with President Putin after a failed Islamabad round, signalling that Tehran was still seeking a
May 15 dips to 14%1%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Moscow for high‑level talks with President Putin after a failed Islamabad round, signalling that Tehran was still seeking a diplomatic path but had not secured a deal
President Donald Trump discussed a new Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but rejected its “no‑nuclear‑talks” terms, signalling U.S.
May 15 dips to 12%3%
reluctance to accept a permanent deal
Multiple outlets (Al Jazeera, PBS, Reuters) report Iran’s foreign minister meeting Putin in Russia and offering a “re‑open Hormuz” plan that postpones nuclear talks, keeping hope
June 30 drops to 47%8%
Multiple outlets (Al Jazeera, PBS, Reuters) report Iran’s foreign minister meeting Putin in Russia and offering a “re‑open Hormuz” plan that postpones nuclear talks, keeping hope alive
Iran fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after President Trump announced an extension of the two‑week cease‑fire, raising fears the truce was
May 15 dips to 12%2%
Iran fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after President Trump announced an extension of the two‑week cease‑fire, raising fears the truce was collapsing and that a permanent peace pact was unlikely
Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Putin in St.
June 30 rises to 51%4%
Petersburg, reiterates that US demands are excessive; Tehran’s new peace proposal reviewed by Trump’s national security team, but no breakthrough announced
Trump cancels the planned trip of the envoys to Pakistan, citing uncertainty over Iranian participation; markets react negatively
June 30 plunges to 45%19%
Trump cancels the planned trip of the envoys to Pakistan, citing uncertainty over Iranian participation; markets react negatively
Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely but underlying tensions remain;
June 30 drops to 47%7%
Iran signals readiness for negotiations only with strong guarantees; oil markets react to uncertainty
White House confirms that special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are flying back to Islamabad to resume talks, reviving optimism
June 30 jumps to 64%6%
White House confirms that special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are flying back to Islamabad to resume talks, reviving optimism
Iran Refuses Further US Talks Citing Excessive Pressure Tactics
May 31 drops to 28%11%
Iran publicly rejected additional negotiations, accusing the US of excessive demands and pressure, reducing near-term chances of a peace deal and causing a market drop.
Ceasefire deadline expires with no extension;
June 30 drops to 54%8%
US naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz begins; Iran accuses US of piracy; talks collapse in Islamabad; market confidence in deal drops sharply
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to allow more time for negotiations, temporarily boosting hopes for a lasting agreement
April 30 plunges to 41%22%
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to allow more time for negotiations, temporarily boosting hopes for a lasting agreement
President Trump says he will indefinitely extend the two‑week cease‑fire to give negotiators more time, removing the imminent deadline
June 30 drops to 58%8%
President Trump says he will indefinitely extend the two‑week cease‑fire to give negotiators more time, removing the imminent deadline
US Officials Signal Potential Diplomatic Breakthrough but Maintain Sanctions Pressure
May 31 drops to 52%5%
US officials described recent talks as productive and hinted at further negotiations, but Treasury Secretary warned of sanctions on Iranian oil buyers, maintaining pressure. This cautious optimism caused moderate market gains.
Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blames US "excessive demands" for negotiation failures during talks with Putin in St.
June 30 drops to 68%5%
Petersburg; Tehran submits a new three-stage proposal including reopening Hormuz and war-ending guarantees, but US remains cautious
Iran Proposes Reopening Strait of Hormuz and Postponing Nuclear Talks in New Peace Plan
May 31 drops to 57%9%
Iran submitted a three-stage proposal to reopen the strait, end the war, and defer nuclear discussions, which US President Trump reviewed but expressed dissatisfaction with. The mixed signals led to market volatility and a decline in deal probability.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council Declares Control Over Strait of Hormuz Until War Ends
May 31 jumps to 66%10%
Iran stated it would maintain control over all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz until a permanent peace deal is reached, rejecting US demands. This firm stance increased uncertainty but also signaled Iran's readiness to negotiate conditions, causing market fluctuations.
Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar says the United States and Iran are “very close to stitching a deal” and the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, sparking a surge in the market
April 30 surges to 63%30%
Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar says the United States and Iran are “very close to stitching a deal” and the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, sparking a surge in the market
Iran publicly denies agreeing to US claims on uranium stockpile transfer;
June 30 jumps to 73%7%
Trump claims progress but Iran calls US statements lies, deepening mistrust and reducing optimism for a deal
U.S. Vice President JD Vance publicly says Iran has shown “some flexibility” but the gap remains, prompting traders to
June 30 jumps to 77%8%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance publicly says Iran has shown “some flexibility” but the gap remains, prompting traders to
US Officials Express Optimism for Deal Amid Continued Pressure on Iran
May 31 jumps to 56%9%
White House and Treasury officials expressed cautious optimism about future talks while warning of sanctions on Iranian oil buyers, suggesting a possible diplomatic breakthrough. This boosted market hopes for a peace deal.
President Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the failed Islamabad talks, further eroding confidence in a permanent peace
April 30 drops to 33%6%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the failed Islamabad talks, further eroding confidence in a permanent peace
U.S. President Donald Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports, effective April 13, after the Islamabad talks end without a deal
June 30 surges to 69%28%
U.S. President Donald Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports, effective April 13, after the Islamabad talks end without a deal
US Announces Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports Following Failed Talks
May 31 surges to 47%19%
The US Central Command announced a maritime blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz after Islamabad talks failed, signaling increased pressure on Iran. This military escalation paradoxically caused a temporary market rally on expectations of forcing Iran to negotiate.
Reuters reports that the highest‑level U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad conclude without any breakthrough, leaving “dialogue still alive” but no agreement
Reuters reports that the highest‑level U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad conclude without any breakthrough, leaving “dialogue still alive” but no agreement
Direct talks in Islamabad collapse over disagreements on nuclear limits, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp drop in optimism
April 30 plunges to 39%22%
Direct talks in Islamabad collapse over disagreements on nuclear limits, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp drop in optimism
High-Level US-Iran Peace Talks in Islamabad End Without Agreement
May 31 drops to 28%8%
After over 21 hours of negotiations led by US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, talks collapsed without resolving key issues like Iran's nuclear program and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The failure dampened market confidence.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks, signalling a high‑level push toward a permanent deal
April 30 surges to 61%30%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks, signalling a high‑level push toward a permanent deal
Islamabad peace talks begin but end without agreement as US rejects Iran’s 10-point peace plan, demanding long-term uranium enrichment halt and sanctions relief;
June 30 drops to 66%7%
negotiations stall amid mutual distrust
United States and Iran agree to a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, raising hopes of a lasting settlement
April 30 jumps to 31%12%
United States and Iran agree to a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, raising hopes of a lasting settlement
US and Iran Agree to Two-Week Ceasefire in Ongoing Middle East War
May 31 drops to 36%8%
The US and Iran announced a conditional two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, halting military strikes and reopening the Strait of Hormuz to some shipping. This raised hopes for a peace deal, boosting market optimism initially.
US and Iran agree to a fragile two-week ceasefire, with Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz;
June 30 rises to 70%1%
Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt facilitate talks scheduled to start April 11 in Islamabad
Trump issues ultimatum threatening massive strikes on Iran’s infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by April 7;
June 30 surges to 69%28%
Iran rejects immediate reopening and calls US demands unrealistic, raising tensions before ceasefire talks
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