Polymarket traders assign a 57% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting consensus around the FOMC's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the largest annual gain since May 2024—driven by oil price spikes from geopolitical risks, overshadowing the March dot plot's median projection for one 25 basis point cut by year-end. Robust economic resilience and elevated core inflation have shifted fed funds futures toward steady rates near 3.6%, with 17.5% odds on a single cut. Upcoming April CPI data on May 12 could further influence June FOMC expectations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
0 (0 bps) 57.0%
1 (25 bps) 18%
2 (50 pb) 13%
3 (75 points de base) 7%
$22,166,286 Vol.
$22,166,286 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0 (0 bps)
57%
1 (25 bps)
18%
2 (50 pb)
13%
3 (75 points de base)
7%
4 (100 pb)
2%
5 (125 pb)
1%
6 (150 points de base)
<1%
7 (175 points de base)
<1%
8 (200 points de base)
<1%
9 (225 points de base)
<1%
10 (250 pb)
<1%
11 (275 points de base)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 57.0%
1 (25 bps) 18%
2 (50 pb) 13%
3 (75 points de base) 7%
$22,166,286 Vol.
$22,166,286 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0 (0 bps)
$3,770,620 Vol.
57%
1 (25 bps)
$1,132,174 Vol.
18%
2 (50 pb)
$1,101,470 Vol.
13%
3 (75 points de base)
$1,007,652 Vol.
7%
4 (100 pb)
$1,068,751 Vol.
2%
5 (125 pb)
$1,234,505 Vol.
1%
6 (150 points de base)
$2,253,027 Vol.
<1%
7 (175 points de base)
$1,011,737 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 points de base)
$1,396,139 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 points de base)
$1,622,013 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 pb)
$2,069,398 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 points de base)
$2,558,032 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$1,941,351 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders assign a 57% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting consensus around the FOMC's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the largest annual gain since May 2024—driven by oil price spikes from geopolitical risks, overshadowing the March dot plot's median projection for one 25 basis point cut by year-end. Robust economic resilience and elevated core inflation have shifted fed funds futures toward steady rates near 3.6%, with 17.5% odds on a single cut. Upcoming April CPI data on May 12 could further influence June FOMC expectations.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Marché ouvert : Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$22,166,286Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders assign a 57% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting consensus around the FOMC's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the largest annual gain since May 2024—driven by oil price spikes from geopolitical risks, overshadowing the March dot plot's median projection for one 25 basis point cut by year-end. Robust economic resilience and elevated core inflation have shifted fed funds futures toward steady rates near 3.6%, with 17.5% odds on a single cut. Upcoming April CPI data on May 12 could further influence June FOMC expectations.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$22,166,286Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 57% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting consensus around the FOMC's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the largest annual gain since May 2024—driven by oil price spikes from geopolitical risks, overshadowing the March dot plot's median projection for one 25 basis point cut by year-end. Robust economic resilience and elevated core inflation have shifted fed funds futures toward steady rates near 3.6%, with 17.5% odds on a single cut. Upcoming April CPI data on May 12 could further influence June FOMC expectations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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