Trader consensus favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial (1850–1900) levels for April 2026 at 54% implied probability, driven by preliminary reanalysis data and near-record sea surface temperatures reported by Copernicus Climate Change Service. April SST averaged 21.08°C, the second-warmest on record, sustaining elevated air temperatures after March's 1.48°C anomaly—the fourth-hottest March—while neutral ENSO conditions curbed extremes beyond recent historical precedents like April 2024–2025 around 1.2ºC. Ongoing anthropogenic forcing amid model consensus for moderated warming positions lower bins like 1.10–1.14ºC (26%) as viable alternatives. Official ERA5 bulletin expected early May could shift odds with final adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 55%
1.10–1.14ºC 27%
1.20–1.24ºC 10%
1.25–1.29ºC 1.5%
$269,330 Vol.
$269,330 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
27%
1.15–1.19ºC
55%
1.20–1.24ºC
10%
1.25–1.29ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC 55%
1.10–1.14ºC 27%
1.20–1.24ºC 10%
1.25–1.29ºC 1.5%
$269,330 Vol.
$269,330 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$49,411 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$52,746 Vol.
27%
1.15–1.19ºC
$40,554 Vol.
55%
1.20–1.24ºC
$46,744 Vol.
10%
1.25–1.29ºC
$46,860 Vol.
2%
>1.29ºC
$33,015 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial (1850–1900) levels for April 2026 at 54% implied probability, driven by preliminary reanalysis data and near-record sea surface temperatures reported by Copernicus Climate Change Service. April SST averaged 21.08°C, the second-warmest on record, sustaining elevated air temperatures after March's 1.48°C anomaly—the fourth-hottest March—while neutral ENSO conditions curbed extremes beyond recent historical precedents like April 2024–2025 around 1.2ºC. Ongoing anthropogenic forcing amid model consensus for moderated warming positions lower bins like 1.10–1.14ºC (26%) as viable alternatives. Official ERA5 bulletin expected early May could shift odds with final adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$269,330End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial (1850–1900) levels for April 2026 at 54% implied probability, driven by preliminary reanalysis data and near-record sea surface temperatures reported by Copernicus Climate Change Service. April SST averaged 21.08°C, the second-warmest on record, sustaining elevated air temperatures after March's 1.48°C anomaly—the fourth-hottest March—while neutral ENSO conditions curbed extremes beyond recent historical precedents like April 2024–2025 around 1.2ºC. Ongoing anthropogenic forcing amid model consensus for moderated warming positions lower bins like 1.10–1.14ºC (26%) as viable alternatives. Official ERA5 bulletin expected early May could shift odds with final adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$269,330End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial (1850–1900) levels for April 2026 at 54% implied probability, driven by preliminary reanalysis data and near-record sea surface temperatures reported by Copernicus Climate Change Service. April SST averaged 21.08°C, the second-warmest on record, sustaining elevated air temperatures after March's 1.48°C anomaly—the fourth-hottest March—while neutral ENSO conditions curbed extremes beyond recent historical precedents like April 2024–2025 around 1.2ºC. Ongoing anthropogenic forcing amid model consensus for moderated warming positions lower bins like 1.10–1.14ºC (26%) as viable alternatives. Official ERA5 bulletin expected early May could shift odds with final adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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