Mexico's intensified anti-cartel operations under President Claudia Sheinbaum have driven elevated trader consensus probabilities for arrests of key Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG figures by year-end, with Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar at 79%, Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar at 62%, and Ricardo Ruiz Velasco at 61% implied odds. The April 28 military raid capturing CJNG commander Audias Flores Silva, alias "El Jardinero," while hiding in a drainage ditch—resolving his market to Yes—signals heightened enforcement momentum following February's killing of CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, "El Mencho." U.S. indictments of Sinaloa officials like Governor Rubén Rocha Moya for cartel ties add extradition pressure, amid DEA rewards and 4,000-troop deployments ahead of the 2026 World Cup, though Mexico resists U.S. demands. Ongoing Sinaloa infighting and security deadlines could tip remaining outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué líderes de cárteles serán arrestados en 2026?
¿Qué líderes de cárteles serán arrestados en 2026?
$82,146 Vol.
28 feb 2026
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
54%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
61%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
60%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán
22%
Juan Carlos Valencia González
49%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
50%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
46%
$82,146 Vol.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
$5,610 Vol.
54%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
$5,785 Vol.
61%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$825 Vol.
60%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán
$4,815 Vol.
22%
Juan Carlos Valencia González
$58,516 Vol.
49%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
$0 Vol.
50%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
$647 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexico's intensified anti-cartel operations under President Claudia Sheinbaum have driven elevated trader consensus probabilities for arrests of key Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG figures by year-end, with Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar at 79%, Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar at 62%, and Ricardo Ruiz Velasco at 61% implied odds. The April 28 military raid capturing CJNG commander Audias Flores Silva, alias "El Jardinero," while hiding in a drainage ditch—resolving his market to Yes—signals heightened enforcement momentum following February's killing of CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, "El Mencho." U.S. indictments of Sinaloa officials like Governor Rubén Rocha Moya for cartel ties add extradition pressure, amid DEA rewards and 4,000-troop deployments ahead of the 2026 World Cup, though Mexico resists U.S. demands. Ongoing Sinaloa infighting and security deadlines could tip remaining outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Volumen
$82,146Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexico's intensified anti-cartel operations under President Claudia Sheinbaum have driven elevated trader consensus probabilities for arrests of key Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG figures by year-end, with Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar at 79%, Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar at 62%, and Ricardo Ruiz Velasco at 61% implied odds. The April 28 military raid capturing CJNG commander Audias Flores Silva, alias "El Jardinero," while hiding in a drainage ditch—resolving his market to Yes—signals heightened enforcement momentum following February's killing of CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, "El Mencho." U.S. indictments of Sinaloa officials like Governor Rubén Rocha Moya for cartel ties add extradition pressure, amid DEA rewards and 4,000-troop deployments ahead of the 2026 World Cup, though Mexico resists U.S. demands. Ongoing Sinaloa infighting and security deadlines could tip remaining outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$82,146Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mexico's intensified anti-cartel operations under President Claudia Sheinbaum have driven elevated trader consensus probabilities for arrests of key Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG figures by year-end, with Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar at 79%, Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar at 62%, and Ricardo Ruiz Velasco at 61% implied odds. The April 28 military raid capturing CJNG commander Audias Flores Silva, alias "El Jardinero," while hiding in a drainage ditch—resolving his market to Yes—signals heightened enforcement momentum following February's killing of CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, "El Mencho." U.S. indictments of Sinaloa officials like Governor Rubén Rocha Moya for cartel ties add extradition pressure, amid DEA rewards and 4,000-troop deployments ahead of the 2026 World Cup, though Mexico resists U.S. demands. Ongoing Sinaloa infighting and security deadlines could tip remaining outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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