Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by recent U.S. intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China lacks plans for a 2027 military action and faces capability shortfalls from ongoing PLA purges. April developments show routine People's Liberation Army patrols and gray-zone tactics like espionage against Taiwanese military personnel, but no verifiable signs of amphibious buildup, blockade, or escalation amid China's economic pressures and Taiwan's fortified defenses. U.S. deterrence and diplomatic calls to abandon threats further solidify the status quo. While late-breaking mobilization or a territorial dispute flare-up could shift odds, such scenarios remain improbable within two months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$7,233,601 Vol.
$7,233,601 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$7,233,601 Vol.
$7,233,601 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by recent U.S. intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China lacks plans for a 2027 military action and faces capability shortfalls from ongoing PLA purges. April developments show routine People's Liberation Army patrols and gray-zone tactics like espionage against Taiwanese military personnel, but no verifiable signs of amphibious buildup, blockade, or escalation amid China's economic pressures and Taiwan's fortified defenses. U.S. deterrence and diplomatic calls to abandon threats further solidify the status quo. While late-breaking mobilization or a territorial dispute flare-up could shift odds, such scenarios remain improbable within two months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volumen
$7,233,601Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by recent U.S. intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China lacks plans for a 2027 military action and faces capability shortfalls from ongoing PLA purges. April developments show routine People's Liberation Army patrols and gray-zone tactics like espionage against Taiwanese military personnel, but no verifiable signs of amphibious buildup, blockade, or escalation amid China's economic pressures and Taiwan's fortified defenses. U.S. deterrence and diplomatic calls to abandon threats further solidify the status quo. While late-breaking mobilization or a territorial dispute flare-up could shift odds, such scenarios remain improbable within two months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$7,233,601Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by recent U.S. intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China lacks plans for a 2027 military action and faces capability shortfalls from ongoing PLA purges. April developments show routine People's Liberation Army patrols and gray-zone tactics like espionage against Taiwanese military personnel, but no verifiable signs of amphibious buildup, blockade, or escalation amid China's economic pressures and Taiwan's fortified defenses. U.S. deterrence and diplomatic calls to abandon threats further solidify the status quo. While late-breaking mobilization or a territorial dispute flare-up could shift odds, such scenarios remain improbable within two months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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